Purchase Prices for Barley in Ukraine Continue to Grow

ODESA: Ukraine in 2022/23 MY reduced barley production by almost half compared to the previous season. The lack of supply and increased competition in the world market complicate the prospects for the Ukrainian barley export.

This year, 5.5 million tons of barley have been harvested in Ukraine. Whereas last year 9.4 million tons were harvested and in 2020/21 MY – 7.6 million tons. However, if in MY 2020/21 barley exports amounted to 4.2 million tons, then in MY 2021/22 it increased by 37% to 5.8 million tons. And in MY 2022/23 it is forecasted at the level of 2-3 million tons.  For the last two seasons in a row, almost 45% of barley exported from Ukraine was bought by China. But this season with increased barley production in the EU and Canada, a record harvest in Australia and war in Ukraine, there is almost no demand for Ukrainian barley from China.

Barley production in Russia will increase compared to last year from 18 to 23 million tons. Strengthening competition between Ukrainian and Russian sellers is beneficial for Turkish importers, who bought 1.1 million tons of barley in Ukraine last year.

Against the background of limited supply and increased demand, barley purchase prices in Ukrainian ports rose to 6,500-7,000 UAH/t CPT, or 165-185 $/t, compared to 130-160 $/t at the beginning of the season. Additionally, they are supported by the active growth in prices for feed wheat and corn, which have already exceeded 200 $/t CPT.

Increasing competition among processors, livestock breeders and exporters amid limited supply from producers will support barley prices in the nearest future.

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