Groundnut crops in Gujarat and Rajasthan have received a blessing from the heavens through abundant rainfall. This boon is expected to boost groundnut production in Gujarat alone by a staggering two to three lakh tonnes, with estimates pegging the total output at 2.5 to 2.7 million tonnes. This deluge of rain has delayed the new arrivals of groundnut by 10 to 15 days. TJ Peanuts is set to make their entry from October 5 to 10, while Bold Peanuts will grace the market after October 15.
The International Groundnut Conference in China has paved the way for international trade discussions. Experts predict that China’s peanut crop will increase by 15 to 20 percent compared to last year despite sporadic damage due to heavy rains and storms.
A drop in prices expected
The price is expected to drop with new peanuts entering the market in various Chinese centers. However, Chinese importers are biding their time, as good rainfall in Indian groundnut-producing states may lead to lower prices. Chinese buyers are currently offering $1250 per ton for Indian groundnut seeds, but they may wait for another fifteen days before making purchases.
Indian exporters, too, are holding off on groundnut grain transactions, even though they previously traded groundnut grains with China at prices ranging from $1350 to $1400 per ton. There is potential for trade at $1800 per ton if groundnut prices dip after the arrival of new crops, but prolonged low prices are unlikely, given that Indian groundnut oil commanded prices between $1900 and $2000 per ton this year.
Recent rainfall has impacted groundnut sown in July, leading to reduced yields. However, late-sown groundnuts stand to benefit from the current rains, promising both higher results and quality around the Diwali season. Despite these fluctuations, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are expected to maintain groundnut production at last year’s levels.
Thus, the groundnut industry in India and China is experiencing significant shifts due to favorable weather conditions and international trade dynamics. This report unveils the impact of these changes on the groundnut market and provides insights for stakeholders.