Raisin Market on Edge as Turkish Producers Await TMO Lifeline

Turkish raisin producers are locking up stocks and pressing for a higher state-backed price floor, while euro‑denominated export offers are holding broadly steady for now. The unresolved TMO intervention decision is the key short‑term risk for global buyers. The raisin market is currently defined by policy uncertainty rather than crop failure. In Turkey, producers are angered by Tariş’s recently announced 80 TL/kg advance price for seedless raisins, far below pre‑season expectations and perceived production costs. Grower organizations and chambers of agriculture are now urging the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to step in with intervention purchases in the 120–150 TL/kg range to restore confidence and prevent further erosion of free‑market prices. Until Ankara clarifies its stance, many farmers are withholding product, keeping the physical market thin even as new‑season supply builds.

Prices

Export offers in EUR remain relatively stable despite intense producer dissatisfaction in Turkey. Recent indications for Turkish sultana raisins (Malatya) are roughly:

Chinese standard sultanas in Northwest Europe are offered around 1.74 EUR/kg FCA Hamburg, slightly below Turkish equivalents and reflecting comfortable availability. Indian raisin FOB levels around 1.90–2.00 EUR/kg for standard qualities indicate that Turkey is still pricing near the middle of the global pack.

Supply & Demand

In Turkey’s Aegean sultana belt, harvest and drying are progressing well under hot, dry conditions. High daytime temperatures above 30°C and largely rain‑free weather support good raisin quality and rapid throughput from vineyard to processor.   

Despite this improving physical supply, effective availability is constrained by grower resistance. Producers, disappointed by the 80 TL/kg Tariş advance price and facing sharply higher input costs, are reluctant to release volume before TMO signals a more supportive intervention level. Producer groups publicly repeat calls for a 120–150 TL/kg floor, and local media report protests and political pressure on Ankara to act.   

On the demand side, international buyers appear calm, with no signs of panic pre‑buying. Existing stocks and alternative origins (China, India, Chile, South Africa) are cushioning short‑term supply fears. However, if TMO were to meet growers’ price demands at the upper end of the suggested range, export parity in EUR could rise, potentially triggering a new round of forward cover from packers and food manufacturers.

Fundamentals & Policy Tension

The core tension lies between domestic farmgate economics and export competitiveness. An 80 TL/kg cooperative price is viewed by farmers as far below last year’s 120 TL/kg and insufficient against higher fuel, fertilizer and labour costs. Political voices and producer organizations continue to argue that only a significantly higher TMO price can keep vineyards viable and prevent rapid sell‑offs at distressed levels.

For exporters, however, an abrupt jump toward 120–150 TL/kg in intervention pricing would likely require higher EUR/kg offers, eroding Turkey’s price advantage over China and India. So far, the weaker lira has allowed Turkish exporters to keep EUR prices broadly unchanged even as lira‑denominated farmgate prices fall, effectively shifting more risk onto growers.   

Globally, fundamentals are not tight enough to force buyers into Turkey at any price. Other origins are offering adequate volumes at competitive levels, and early indications do not point to a dramatic global supply shortfall for 2026/27. This moderates upside price risk and puts the focus squarely on Turkish policy decisions rather than physical scarcity.

Weather Snapshot (Turkey Aegean)

• Current pattern: hot, sunny and dry, with daytime highs in the low‑ to mid‑30s°C supporting fast drying and good colour.
• Short‑term outlook (next 3–5 days): continued mostly dry conditions; only brief temperature moderation expected, with no widespread rain risks flagged for the main raisin districts.
• Market impact: low immediate weather risk; quality and volume outcomes now depend more on policy and marketing than on climate in the very near term.

4–6 Week Market Outlook & Trading View

Over the coming weeks, the raisin market will be driven largely by the timing and level of any TMO intervention announcement. Until that clarity emerges, the market is likely to remain nervous but range‑bound in EUR terms, with thin spot liquidity from Turkey.

• Baseline scenario (most likely): TMO announces an intervention price moderately above Tariş’s 80 TL/kg but below the 150 TL/kg demanded by some grower groups. Turkish EUR export offers drift slightly higher but remain competitive against India and China.
• Upside risk: A surprisingly high intervention level close to 140–150 TL/kg, or political pressure pushing additional support measures, could lift Turkish FOB offers by 5–10% in EUR and trigger renewed forward buying.
• Downside risk: Further delay or a very low TMO price could force reluctant farmer selling later in the season, temporarily softening farmgate prices but increasing social and political tension; EUR export prices would likely be cushioned by the weak lira.

Trading Recommendations

• Industrial buyers (EU/UK): Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 needs at current EUR levels, diversified across Turkish and at least one alternative origin, while keeping some volume open pending the TMO decision.
• Turkish growers and cooperatives: Maintain disciplined, staggered selling and avoid heavy early‑season deliveries at the 80 TL/kg level while lobbying continues for a higher intervention price.
• Traders/packers: Focus on origin diversification and optionality; use current Chinese and Indian offers to hedge against potential Turkish upside if policy turns more supportive for growers.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR‑based)

• Turkey – Malatya FOB/CIF sultanas: Sideways; low volume, offers nominally stable pending policy news.
• EU (NL/DE) FCA stocks – Turkish & Chinese sultanas: Slight soft tone for Chinese product; Turkish lots steady with limited fresh offers.
• India FOB raisins: Stable; no immediate driver for sharp moves as global buyers watch Turkish developments.