Raisin prices edge higher as Chinese demand meets tight global balance

Raisin prices are edging higher, with Chinese-origin sultanas in Europe and Indian AA grades all up modestly in early June, supported by firm import demand into China and a broadly tight but well-supplied global balance. Across key grades, the market is in a gentle uptrend rather than a spike: Chinese sultanas in Hamburg and Dutch hubs are pricing below Turkish product, while Indian raisin offers remain competitive despite a weaker rupee. Very hot, dry weather in Xinjiang is currently favourable for drying conditions, keeping near‑term supply risk limited. Logistics out of China are slightly tighter but still functioning, and Beijing’s campaign to boost imports underpins forward demand for dried fruit alongside other foods. In this environment, buyers have some time to cover but face a mild upward bias in prices rather than meaningful downside.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR/kg for comparability, using current FX levels.

Chinese sultanas in EU hubs are currently discounting Turkish premium product by around EUR 0.60–0.70/kg, while being roughly in line with Turkish CIF Malatya values once logistics and quality differences are adjusted for. Turkish spot sultana indications from Izmir are broadly stable into early June, confirming a sideways export market.

Supply, Demand & Chinese Angle

On the supply side, global raisin production in 2025/26 is projected to decline moderately year‑on‑year but remains ample, with China and Chile increasing output while Türkiye, India and Iran see smaller crops. This underpins a tight‑but‑comfortable balance rather than outright shortage.

For China, policy and trade signals are supportive for imported foodstuffs. The Ministry of Commerce has announced more than 100 “Exports to China” events in 2026 to attract additional agricultural imports, including high‑value processed foods. Together with robust overall trade growth in the first five months of 2026, this suggests continued appetite for niche categories like raisins in addition to bulk commodities.

At the same time, China is expanding rail and cold‑chain infrastructure for fruit imports from Southeast Asia, which, while focused on fresh tropical fruit, reinforces the broader trend of diversified fruit sourcing. For exporters in Türkiye, India and Chile, this strengthens the case for targeting Chinese confectionery, bakery and snacking demand with competitively priced raisin offers.

Fundamentals & Weather

In China’s key raisin‑producing region around Turpan in Xinjiang, the next three days (10–12 June) are forecast to be extremely hot and dry, with daytime highs around 41–43°C and minimal cloud cover. For the current stage in the season, such conditions are favourable for vine health and future drying, as long as irrigation is adequate.

Globally, the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council projects world raisin consumption in 2025/26 to remain close to 2024/25 levels, with gradual demand growth in Asia offsetting flat or slightly weaker use in some mature Western markets. In Türkiye, overall exports have softened in May, pointing to some macro headwinds, but sultana shipments remain structurally export‑oriented and price‑sensitive. Indian dried grape exports are steady into the Gulf and other traditional markets, supported by a weaker rupee that enhances price competitiveness for AA grades.

From a logistics and regulatory perspective, China has recently tightened import controls through additional random inspections and stricter food import rules from June 2026, which may lengthen clearance times and raise compliance costs for some raisin shippers. So far there are no reports of major disruptions, but exporters should factor in slightly longer lead times and robust documentation, especially on pesticide residues and sulphur dioxide levels for treated product.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next 1–3 weeks, the raisin complex is likely to trade with a mild upward bias. Chinese and Indian prices have edged up in early June, and while Turkish and Chilean offers are broadly stable, any renewed buying interest from China or the EU could firm premiums for higher grades.

• European buyers (importers/packers): Consider covering near‑term needs (Q3) in Chinese and Indian sultanas on current dips, as they still price at a discount to Turkish product and logistics from China remain manageable despite tighter inspections.
• Chinese importers: Use current stable Turkish and Chilean offers to diversify origin mix before any seasonal freight volatility; focus on suppliers with strong compliance records to reduce inspection‑related delays.
• Producers in Türkiye and India: Avoid aggressive under‑offering; the combination of firm Chinese demand initiatives and weaker local currencies suggests room to hold offers slightly above recent lows, particularly for uniform AA grades.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• EU hubs (Hamburg, Dordrecht) – CN & TR sultanas: Sideways to slightly firmer; expected move +0.5–1.5% over 3 days as buyers test higher offers but liquidity stays thin.
• Turkey (Malatya) – export sultanas: Largely flat; domestic macro pressure caps producer price hikes, so FOB values should remain range‑bound.
• India (New Delhi) – AA grades: Mild upward drift; INR weakness and steady export interest suggest another EUR 0.02–0.03/kg upside risk in the very near term.