Raisin Prices Edge Higher on Hot Xinjiang Weather and Tight Sultana Supply

Raisin prices are edging higher in early June, driven by modest firmness in Indian offers and weather-related concerns in China’s Xinjiang region, while Turkish and Chilean supplies remain broadly stable. The overall tone is mildly bullish rather than explosive, with buyers still able to secure volume but losing some of the discounts seen earlier in the year. Demand from Europe and the Middle East is steady, supported by normalized post-Ramadan buying and routine snack and bakery demand. Weather is the main watchpoint: intense heat in Xinjiang and a wetter-than-normal outlook in Chile’s grape valleys are raising questions about the next crop, even if the immediate 3‑day impact on physical availability is limited. Logistics and trade flows are functioning normally, keeping different origins closely priced and preventing sharp dislocations.

Prices & Spreads (all in EUR/kg)

Using a working FX assumption of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR, current offers convert as follows:

Indian grades have gained around 1% week‑on‑week, reflecting firm domestic demand and limited grower selling, while Afghan feed-quality raisins in Europe track this uptick. Chilean flame jumbo and Chinese sultanas are stable, with exporters well covered. Turkish sultanas from Malatya are broadly unchanged but with slightly softer offers on some mid-grades as exporters compete for European tenders.

Supply, Demand & Regional Weather Drivers

India (IN)

India remains one of the top three global raisin producers, with the latest industry balances showing 2025/26 production around 160,000 tonnes, down from 245,000 tonnes in 2024/25 and reducing total supply to about 180,000 tonnes. This structural tightening underpins the modest price appreciation seen in New Delhi offers.

Weather in India’s main raisin belt (Maharashtra) during early June has been seasonally hot with pre-monsoon showers in some grape areas, but without fresh reports of severe damage over the last three days. Recent official dashboards for grapes point to weaker fresh-grape returns in late 2025, encouraging some diversion to drying, yet the overall 2025/26 raisin balance is still notably tighter than last season. This helps explain why exporters are reluctant to discount further, even as global demand is steady rather than booming.

China (CN) – Xinjiang

Xinjiang, China’s core raisin origin, is currently experiencing intense early‑summer heat. Recent weather data for key Xinjiang locations such as Bole and Aksu show June highs often pushing into the low- to mid‑30s °C, with forecasts in the coming days calling for very warm, largely dry conditions. Chinese media this week reported high‑temperature alerts in parts of Xinjiang, with some areas expected to exceed 40–45 °C.

For existing 2025/26 stocks, this has little immediate impact, but it increases uncertainty about berry set and fruit quality for the upcoming crop if heat persists or intensifies during key growth stages. Domestic Chinese coverage of related dried-fruit markets (e.g. jujube) notes that weather is already a major focus for traders. Combined with strong global production in China’s 2025/26 raisin balance (around 190,000 tonnes), the market currently prices in good availability but embeds a weather risk premium for later in the season.

Türkiye (TR)

Türkiye’s sultana sector has been recovering from severe frost damage in the 2025 crop, which left limited stocks and supported high prices into early 2026. The latest global industry estimates still show Turkish 2025/26 production down sharply at around 165,000 tonnes versus over 226,000 tonnes in 2024/25, tightening total supply and leaving ending stocks lower.

Weather in the Malatya and Aegean sultana regions over the past few days has been seasonally warm with no fresh frost issues. With the critical flowering and early fruit‑set periods behind us, short‑term weather risk for the standing crop is moderate. Export pipelines to Europe remain smooth, and sellers show little urgency to cut prices aggressively at current levels.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin sector is smaller than India’s, Türkiye’s or China’s but remains important for premium seedless and flame jumbo grades. A recent USDA-style update for Chile indicates 2025/26 raisin production around 62,000 tonnes, broadly flat on last year but well below the 2013/14 peak, reflecting reduced grape area and competition from fresh exports.

Chile has just entered the austral winter. The national meteorology service expects near‑normal to above‑normal rainfall for June–August across central and southern regions, which could help replenish water reserves and support vine health for the next cycle rather than threaten existing dried-fruit stocks. Wine‑sector commentary on the 2026 harvest highlights a La Niña pattern with warmer‑than‑average temperatures but generally good grape quality. For raisins, this points to stable supply and explains why Chilean offers in Europe are currently flat.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan is a small but growing raisin exporter, with the most recent global industry balance sheet putting its 2025/26 production near 20,000 tonnes, up from 12,000 tonnes the year before. Much of this volume targets price‑sensitive feed and industrial segments rather than premium retail packs.

There have been no notable weather‑related disruptions reported in the last three days in key Afghan raisin areas. International development and trade reports highlight continued logistical constraints but no acute new bottlenecks so far in June. Underlying this, modest price gains in Europe for Afghan feed‑grade raisins track broader dried-fruit trends and reflect their role as a low‑cost alternative to higher‑grade sultanas.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Global balance: The latest comprehensive industry forecast (March 2026) points to a 2025/26 world raisin production of about 1.16 million tonnes, down from 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25, with consumption broadly stable. Ending stocks are projected to fall from about 154,000 tonnes to 137,000 tonnes.
• Origin shifts: India and Türkiye both show significant production declines in 2025/26, partially offset by gains in China, South Africa and Afghanistan. This redistribution caps extreme tightness but keeps the market tighter than last year.
• Competing uses: Some origins (Chile, South Africa) are prioritizing wine or fresh‑table‑grape exports, which structurally limits the volume channelled into raisin drying.
• Demand: No major demand shock has emerged in early June. Retail and foodservice demand in Europe and Asia is steady, and there are anecdotal signs that dried fruit is benefiting from ongoing supply noise in some fresh‑grape segments.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Weather outlook (next 3 days)

• CN – Xinjiang: Forecasts for key basins such as Bole and Aksu point to very warm and mostly dry weather over the next few days, with daytime highs in the low to mid‑30s °C, sustaining heat stress concerns if prolonged.
• CL – Central valleys: Early‑winter conditions prevail; national forecasts signal normal to above‑normal precipitation this winter, but in the very short term no extreme storms are highlighted that could disrupt stock movement.
• IN/TR/AF: No major new weather alerts affecting raisin areas have been reported in the last three days; conditions are broadly seasonal.

Trading outlook – key recommendations

• Cover nearby needs in India-linked grades: With Indian production down year‑on‑year and prices already edging higher, buyers should consider covering at least 1–2 months of demand in golden/brown grades rather than waiting for discounts that may not materialize if Xinjiang heat risk escalates.
• Use Turkish and Chinese sultanas for price averaging: Stable Turkish and Chinese offers provide a useful anchor to balance more expensive origins; blended sourcing can keep average costs in check while maintaining quality.
• Watch Xinjiang weather for Q4 risk: If extreme heat persists into the flowering and berry‑development window, premiums for non‑Chinese origins could widen later in 2026; optionality via contracts with flexible origin clauses may be valuable.
• Afghan feed grades remain a discount tool: For industrial uses and feed, Afghan raisins offer cost savings versus standard edible sultanas; locking in volumes now can hedge against potential spill‑over strength from the food‑grade market.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India (IN, New Delhi FOB): Slightly firmer bias (+0–1%) for golden/brown/black AA grades as exporters test higher offers amid tighter domestic supply.
• Türkiye (TR, Malatya FOB/CIF): Largely stable (0 to -0.5%) on sultanas; competition for European tenders caps upside, but tight 2025/26 balances limit downside.
• China (CN, Xinjiang to EU FCA): Mostly steady (0–0.5% up) as hot Xinjiang weather adds a mild risk premium but ample current stocks temper immediate price moves.
• Chile (CL, flame jumbo FCA Europe): Flat (0–0.5%) with comfortable stocks and normal trade flows; any gains likely follow broader dried‑fruit complex rather than local fundamentals.
• Afghanistan (AF, feed-grade FCA Europe): Slightly firmer (+0–1%) in sympathy with wider market, but still at a meaningful discount to food‑grade sultanas.