Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Afghan Supply Shifts to Drying

Indian and Turkish raisin benchmarks are trading sideways to slightly higher, with a modest firming in Afghan and Chilean feed and jumbo types as exporters manage logistics disruptions and tight carry-in stocks. Across key origins, the market is digesting a largely known 2026 crop while short-term dynamics are driven by storage drawdown, weather conditions for drying and disrupted fresh-grape export routes out of Afghanistan. Domestic wholesale prices in India have risen sharply over the last week, but export-oriented New Delhi offers are currently stable across golden, brown and black grades. Turkish sultanas from Malatya and EU warehouses are also steady in euro terms, supported by a favourable drying window and a weaker lira. With new-season supply flowing from Turkey and China but constrained logistics in Afghanistan, buyers are selectively rebuilding short-term cover rather than chasing prices.

Prices & Differentials

FOB New Delhi raisin prices are unchanged on 18 September 2026: golden grade AA at 2.55 EUR/kg FOB, brown grade AA at 1.97 EUR/kg FOB, and black grade AA at 1.92 EUR/kg FOB. Feed-grade Malayar bird feed remains at 1.03 EUR/kg FOB. Domestic Indian wholesale mandi data show the national median raisin price at roughly ₹37,050/quintal on 18 September, up more than 80% versus 10 September, underlining tightening domestic availability even as export offer levels in EUR stay flat.

In Europe, FCA Dordrecht offers as of 18 September show Afghan-origin feed brown raisins at 1.97 EUR/kg (up from 1.94), Chilean flame jumbo at 2.55 EUR/kg (up from 2.52), Chinese sultanas standard no. 9 grade AA at 2.25 EUR/kg (up from 2.22), and Turkish nr. 9 RTU at 2.95 EUR/kg (up from 2.92). German FCA Hamburg offers for Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU standard are slightly lower at 1.734 EUR/kg (down from 1.737 on 15 September), indicating localized competitive pressure from Chinese supply into North Europe.

Supply, Trade Flows & Weather

In Afghanistan (AF), border closures and disrupted export routes to Pakistan and India are forcing grape farmers to divert more fresh fruit into on-farm drying and raisin processing. This is increasing local raisin availability but with limited outbound logistics capacity, a greater share is heading into lower-priced feed and bulk channels, reflected in the modest uptick of Afghan-origin feed brown FCA prices in the EU.

India’s raisin supply is largely fixed after the February–April drying window, and current market movements reflect storage drawdown, carrying costs and rising festive-season demand rather than new harvest effects. The sharp recent rise in domestic mandi prices suggests tighter spot availability, but export-grade New Delhi FOB offers in EUR are steady, implying exporters are prioritising existing contracts and using stocks built earlier in the year.

Turkey (TR) has entered its new sultana season with broadly stable euro-denominated offers from Malatya and EU warehouses, despite an official advance price announcement in lira terms. Strong sunshine, high daytime temperatures and dry conditions during early September in Malatya have created a favourable environment for grape drying and quality, encouraging a smooth flow of new-season raisins into the export pipeline. This stability is visible in unchanged or only slightly higher FCA and FOB levels in EUR.

China’s main raisin-producing region, Xinjiang (CN), is in the late grape and early raisin-drying phase. While the most recent official output estimates pre-date this week, prior USDA analysis indicates structurally lower raisin production in MY 2024/25 due to reduced grape output in Turpan. Current Chinese FCA offers in Europe are edging higher in Dordrecht but have slipped in Hamburg, pointing to regional competition between Chinese, Turkish and Chilean product in North European logistics hubs.

Chile (CL) remains a key supplier of flame jumbo raisins to the EU. No major weather shocks have been reported in the last three days for Chile’s main grape regions, and the small increase in FCA prices in Dordrecht suggests firm demand for premium larger-size fruit rather than supply stress. In the absence of fresh Southern Hemisphere harvest news at this time of year, current pricing mainly reflects inventory management and freight rather than crop changes.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Tight carry-in globally: Earlier-season frost damage in parts of Turkey and lower Chinese raisin output last year left limited stocks entering 2026, keeping a firm floor under international prices despite the new Turkish crop.
• Afghan logistics constraints: Closure and disruption of traditional land export routes are constraining the ability of Afghan exporters to monetise increased drying activity, shifting more volume into feed-grade channels and tempering export price gains despite higher availability.
• Indian domestic demand: With the festival season approaching, Indian wholesale prices have risen sharply over the past week, highlighting strong internal demand and potential competition with export channels if domestic buyers bid more aggressively for stored stock.
• Currency and macro: A weaker Turkish lira continues to support competitive euro-priced offers, while stable freight rates into North Europe keep delivered FCA prices for Turkish, Chinese and Chilean raisins within a narrow band.

3-Day Outlook & Trading View

Over the next three days (20–22 September 2026), no major weather disruptions are expected in Malatya, Xinjiang, central Chile or India’s main raisin-growing belt that would materially affect drying or logistics. Recent clear, warm conditions in Turkey and generally stable late-season weather in Central Asia and China should support uninterrupted processing and shipment schedules.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers in Europe: Consider covering near-term needs in Turkish sultanas and Chilean flame jumbo at current FCA Dordrecht levels, as tight global carry-in and firm demand suggest limited downside in EUR terms.
• Indian exporters: With domestic mandi prices rising quickly, lock in export contracts where margins are still acceptable at current New Delhi FOB levels, but avoid overcommitting stocks ahead of peak festival demand.
• Feed and blend users: Monitor Afghan-origin feed-grade offers closely; logistical bottlenecks could cap further price rises in the short run, providing value opportunities for feed and industrial buyers willing to manage quality variability.

3-Day Regional Price Direction (Indicative)

• India (FOB New Delhi): Golden, brown and black raisin export prices are expected to remain broadly stable in EUR over the next three days, with any pressure more likely visible in domestic INR markets than in FOB offers.
• Turkey (FOB Malatya / FCA NL): Sultana and raisin prices are likely to trade sideways, as favourable drying weather and stable EU demand keep offers in a tight range.
• China (FCA NL/DE): Chinese sultana prices in North Europe may see marginal two-way moves as traders balance Turkish and Chilean alternatives, but no strong directional shift is expected.
• Chile (FCA NL): Flame jumbo prices should remain firm to slightly supported on steady demand for premium sizes and limited alternative origins in this segment.
• Afghanistan (feed, FCA NL): Feed-grade prices are expected to hold slightly above early-September levels but within a narrow band, constrained by export-route disruptions and buyer caution.