Raisin Prices Hold Steady Amid Afghan Supply Shock and Firm Turkish Sultanas

Raisin prices across major export origins are broadly stable this week, with only marginal upticks in Chinese, Chilean and Afghan feed-grade offers, while Turkish and Indian grades trade sideways in a hot, dry weather window that is broadly supportive of drying conditions. Global trade flows are being reshaped by Afghanistan’s collapse in fresh grape exports, which is channeling more fruit into local raisin drying and pressuring domestic prices, but this has not yet translated into aggressive undercutting on export-grade product. Turkey’s Malatya region, China’s Xinjiang belt and India’s Maharashtra/Nashik raisin areas all report seasonally hot and mostly dry weather, limiting immediate crop stress and helping maintain quality. With Chilean raisins in the off-peak phase of their export calendar, the market focus in the next few days stays on Turkish sultanas and Indian AA grades, where current offers signal a balanced but fragile equilibrium.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1.00 USD = 0.90 EUR.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Afghanistan (AF)

Border closures and fighting along the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier have sharply curtailed fresh grape exports, with official data showing just 256 tonnes shipped so far this season versus over 44,000 tonnes in 2025. This is pushing more grapes into domestic raisin drying, flooding local markets and forcing farmgate raisin prices sharply lower.

Despite weak local prices, export-quality volumes remain constrained by logistics, certification and processing capacity, so FOB offers into Europe have nudged slightly higher rather than collapsing. Commercial buyers should view Afghanistan as a growing but operationally risky origin, with upside potential in volume but persistent uncertainty on reliable shipment.

Turkey (TR)

Malatya, a key sultana-producing hub, is currently experiencing hot, mostly dry late-August conditions with daytime highs around 32–34°C and limited precipitation. These conditions are generally favourable for raisin drying, reducing disease pressure and supporting good colour and sugar concentration.

There are no major reports in the last three days of frost, hail or significant rainfall events affecting the sultana crop. Sunflower harvest in the broader Malatya region indicates normal field access and logistics, with no large-scale disruptions reported. As a result, Turkish export offers for No.9/10 sultanas are stable and continue to anchor EU industrial demand.

India (IN)

Indian raisin supply is heavily linked to table-grape areas in Maharashtra such as Nashik, Sangli and Tasgaon, which collectively dominate India’s export-oriented grape and raisin industry. Recent local weather bulletins for Nashik show typical monsoon conditions with scattered rain but no extreme flooding in the past few days.

Given that the main drying and export window follows the grape harvest later in the season, current weather mainly affects vine health rather than immediate raisin availability. The stable week-on-week INR-denominated prices for AA grades and bird-feed Malayar reflect balanced domestic demand and manageable stocks, with no fresh policy shocks or export restrictions reported in the last three days.

China (CN)

China’s raisin production is concentrated in Xinjiang, where August weather is seasonally hot and dry—conditions that typically support efficient grape drying. No recent reports point to abnormal rainfall or extreme weather in the key producing counties in the last few days.

Slightly firmer FCA offers for standard No.9 AA sultanas in European warehouses suggest steady import demand and firm domestic logistics costs, rather than a fresh supply shock. Chinese raisins continue to provide a competitive alternative to Turkish product in value-focused segments, but without undercutting to the extent seen in previous oversupply years.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin sector mostly uses downgraded table grapes from its export-focused vineyards. Seasonal export patterns typically show raisin shipments available year-round, with a peak between August and November as stocks are cleared ahead of the new fresh grape harvest.

Fresh data from Chile’s agri-economy bulletin this week focuses on wine and must markets and does not indicate acute issues for dried grape availability. Current FCA prices for Chilean flame jumbo raisins in Europe are marginally higher, consistent with moderate restocking demand and stable freight rates.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (Next 7–10 Days)

• Turkey (Malatya): Forecasts point to continued warm, mostly sunny conditions with only light showers around August 29, keeping drying on track and limiting quality risks for sultanas.
• India (Maharashtra/Nashik belt): Daily IMD updates indicate scattered monsoon showers but no severe warnings for the grape belt as of August 27, suggesting normal vine development and field access.
• China (Xinjiang): Historical and current data show persistently hot, arid August conditions; no evidence of widespread rainfall disruption in the last days, supporting drying and storage.
• Afghanistan (Kandahar/Herat): Local reports highlight a good grape harvest but logistics bottlenecks and border closures, rather than weather, as the main constraint, driving a switch from fresh exports to domestic raisin production.
• Chile (Central Valley): Southern Hemisphere late-winter conditions prevail; raisin exports draw on stored product, with no new weather-sensitive harvest underway this week.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Regional Price Direction

Key Trading Recommendations (short term, 3–10 days)

• Cover near-term Turkish needs: With Malatya weather supportive and prices stable, users relying on Turkish No.9/10 sultanas should secure September–October requirements now, before any potential currency or policy volatility in Turkey spills into offers.
• Monitor Afghan offers selectively: Domestic oversupply in Afghanistan is compressing local prices, but exportable quality is constrained by logistics. Buyers with strong on-the-ground partners may find discounts on shade-dried grades but should price-in higher execution risk.
• Use China and Chile as balancing origins: Slight firmness in Chinese and Chilean FCA prices still leaves them competitive against Turkish CIF/FOB levels. Industrial users seeking diversification can lock small-to-medium volumes to hedge against regional shocks.
• India: wait-and-see for larger coverage: With monsoon risks so far contained and Delhi FOB prices flat, larger long-term positions can be delayed until clearer signals emerge closer to the main drying/export window.

3-Day Regional Price Direction (EUR-based indication)

• AF – Afghanistan: Slightly softer to flat. Local farmgate raisin prices likely remain under pressure from diverted grape volumes, but export-grade FCA/FOB offers into the EU are expected to stay broadly stable due to logistics bottlenecks and limited new contracts.
• TR – Turkey (Malatya sultanas): Flat. Hot, dry weather supports quality with no major new fundamental shocks; near-term FOB and CIF quotations are likely to track currency and freight moves rather than crop news.
• IN – India (AA grades, Malayar feed): Flat. Monsoon conditions are seasonally normal and existing offers suggest balanced domestic and export demand; no immediate triggers for price spikes or drops.
• CN – China (Xinjiang sultanas): Slightly firmer bias. Recent small increases in FCA Europe suggest steady demand; without evidence of new supply pressure, minor appreciation is more likely than retracement.
• CL – Chile (flame jumbo): Flat to slightly firmer. With exports drawing from stored product and limited short-term weather risk, prices should remain supported by freight and by steady Northern Hemisphere demand.