Raisin prices slump as Afghan border closures flood the market with dried fruit

Raisin prices in southern Afghanistan have dropped by more than half compared with last year as border closures force a large share of fresh grapes into drying and clog traditional export channels. The local surplus contrasts with relatively stable quotations from Turkey, India and China, highlighting a strongly regionalized price shock with potential spillovers into feed and lower-grade segments. A plentiful grape harvest in Kandahar, combined with the prolonged closure of the Torkham and Spin Boldak crossings into Pakistan, has redirected fresh fruit into domestic drying and into alternative export routes via Iran and the Gulf. Despite logistical constraints, Kandahar alone shipped roughly 13,500 tonnes of dried fruit valued at about $34.5 million to India, China, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Canada. The key question for the coming weeks is whether border policy and freight options ease, or whether persistent bottlenecks will cement today’s low-price environment.

Prices

In Kandahar’s local markets, traders report raisin prices down by more than 50% year-on-year as the new crop arrives and drying continues at scale. This aligns with broader reports of fresh grape and pomegranate prices falling 50–70% after the closure of main routes into Pakistan, pushing growers to convert more fruit into raisins and other dried products.   

By contrast, international offers look broadly steady rather than collapsing. Recent quotations include Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU grade STD at FCA Hamburg EUR 1.734/kg, Indian brown raisins grade AA at FOB New Delhi EUR 1.97/kg and Indian golden raisins grade AA at FOB New Delhi EUR 2.55/kg (all September updates). Turkish sultanas from Malatya trade in a band around EUR 2.13–2.35/kg FOB/CIF depending on type and grade, with only small week-on-week adjustments. The sharpest current price stress is therefore concentrated inside Afghanistan and in nearby feed-grade channels.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, southern Afghanistan reports a plentiful grape harvest and an unusually large share being dried because airfreight for fresh fruit is expensive and ground routes into Pakistan are largely closed. As a result, raisin volumes entering Kandahar markets and processing warehouses have surged while local demand and storage capacity lag behind. This is the primary driver of the dramatic price decline reported by traders.

Export flows are distorted rather than collapsed. Kandahar has still managed to move around 13,500 tonnes of dried fruit (including raisins, figs and golden raisins) this season, worth about $34.5 million, into a diversified market base stretching from India and China to the Gulf and Canada. At the same time, customs data and local reporting show that exports via Pakistan’s Spin Boldak and Torkham crossings have plunged, with Afghanistan’s exports to third countries through Pakistan falling sharply compared with 2025 as trade remains stalled. 

Downstream demand in key destination markets appears relatively stable. India, China and Gulf buyers continue to absorb dried fruit, but higher logistics costs and longer routes via Iran and other corridors erode origin margins. Given ample global raisin availability from other origins (Turkey, India, China, Chile), international buyers face no urgent supply risk and can negotiate aggressively on Afghan offers, especially for lower grades and mixed dried-fruit cargoes.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the Afghan situation is a classic logistics-driven glut: production is strong, but cross-border trade into the main traditional outlet (Pakistan) remains constrained by security and political tensions. Traders report that previously, most fresh fruit moved easily through Spin Boldak and onward to Pakistan and other destinations; now, only small quantities are routed by air or through costlier alternatives, leaving much of the surplus to be dried and sold locally at distressed prices.

Current weather in southern Afghanistan is seasonally hot and dry, which is favorable for rapid grape drying and limits quality losses in open-air or ventilated facilities. In the short term, this supports high drying throughput and further raises raisin output. However, without corresponding export channel relief, this benign weather becomes a bearish factor for prices, as more volume competes for limited buyers. No major weather threat is reported for the near term in other key producing origins that would tighten global raisin supply sufficiently to offset the Afghan overhang.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

Market direction in the coming weeks will hinge on any partial reopening or easing of trade through Pakistan or on the scaling-up of alternative corridors via Iran and Central Asia. If crossings like Spin Boldak and Torkham remain effectively closed, local Afghan raisin prices are likely to stay under heavy pressure, particularly for standard and feed grades. International benchmarks, especially for Turkish and Indian origin, look more balanced, with only modest downside risk from the Afghan surplus.

• Buyers (importers, packers): Use the current weakness in Afghan and feed-grade segments to secure discounted volumes where quality and specification allow. For mainstream retail packs, maintain diversified sourcing from Turkey, India and China while monitoring any further softening if Afghan offers leak more aggressively into third-country markets.
• Origin sellers in Afghanistan: Prioritize quality sorting, packaging and certification to access higher-value markets, and explore forward or formula-based contracts with buyers in India, the Gulf and Central Asia to lock in volumes despite freight uncertainty. Avoid excessive on-farm holding in expectation of a quick price rebound as long as border conditions remain tight.
• Traders in Turkey, India, China: Watch Afghan tenders and cross-border policy closely. A sudden reopening of Pakistan routes could allow some normalization of Afghan prices and reduce competitive pressure on your lower grades, but in the near term, be prepared for selective price competition in bulk and feed channels.

3-day price indication / directional view

• Afghanistan (Kandahar local raisin market): Bearish bias; continued oversupply from ongoing drying keeps spot prices under strong downward pressure.
• Turkey (Malatya FOB sultanas): Sideways to slightly soft; no immediate weather or crop shock, but buyers may push for small discounts amid comfortable global supply.
• India & China (New Delhi FOB, Hamburg FCA): Largely stable over the next three days, with only limited room for downside as trade flows remain orderly and competition is managed through quality and origin differentiation.