Raisins Market Awaiting TMO Signal as New Turkish Season Opens Softly

Official raisin exports from Turkey have started only symbolically, with volumes still low and local prices below producer expectations, keeping sentiment weak and the market on hold for a TMO price announcement. The new marketing year for Turkish sultanas opens under a cloud of uncertainty. Last season’s exports reached 139,000 tons against 210,000 tons registered on the stock exchange, indicating sizeable carryover and comfortable availability. Now, early export activity is sluggish and domestic prices have not met growers’ desired levels, fuelling dissatisfaction. Tariş has fixed appointment dates for product delivery in early September, yet neither the TMO nor Tariş has set purchase prices, leaving both domestic and export markets in a waiting mode where even small policy signals could quickly shift price expectations.

Prices

Price discovery is effectively frozen by policy uncertainty. Producers are holding out for higher levels, but the absence of official TMO and Tariş prices keeps buyers cautious and export trades minimal. The gap between growers’ expectations and current achievable levels in the local market explains the very slow start to the new export season.

Spot offers indicate broadly stable EUR prices over recent weeks. Turkish sultanas type 9 grade A FOB Malatya are indicated around EUR 2.20/kg, with RTU CIF offers close to EUR 2.13/kg, while higher-quality type 10 grade A stands near EUR 2.40/kg. Organic type 9 A is quoted around EUR 3.10/kg. Alternative origins, such as Indian golden raisins around EUR 2.50/kg FOB and Chinese sultanas near EUR 2.22/kg FCA Northwest Europe, remain broadly aligned, limiting Turkey’s room for aggressive price hikes without jeopardising competitiveness.

Supply & Demand

The closure of last season on 31 August with 139,000 tons of exports versus 210,000 tons of stock exchange registrations points to a notable unsold balance. This carryover, combined with the new crop, underpins an overall comfortable supply situation in Turkey at the start of the campaign.

Yet, despite this availability, official exports in the new season have only just begun, and even then at symbolic volumes. The slow start reflects the pricing standoff: exporters are reluctant to commit to sizeable forward sales before seeing the TMO baseline and Tariş purchase prices, while producers are in no rush to sell at currently unappealing local levels. Internationally, competing origins like India, Chile and China appear well supplied, reinforcing a buyers’ market and curbing upside in the absence of weather or policy shocks.

Fundamentals & Producer Sentiment

Fundamentals are dominated by policy expectations rather than outright scarcity. Producers are described as very unhappy, signalling that current domestic bids sit below their cost and income expectations. Many are therefore delaying sales and watching Ankara closely. The fact that even the first official exports are merely symbolic underlines the depth of the standoff.

Tariş has set the organisational framework for the season, scheduling appointment dates from 7 September and starting physical purchases on 10 September. However, the lack of any price indication from both Tariş and TMO means that this framework has not yet translated into actual market orientation. In this context, any eventual TMO intervention price will serve as a key anchor for domestic transactions and export offer levels, especially given the sizeable unsold stocks from last season.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

In the core Turkish raisin region around Manisa, recent local reports point to seasonally warm and mostly dry late-August conditions, broadly favourable for drying and harvest operations. No major weather threat has emerged in the last days that would significantly alter crop size or quality near term.

Given adequate supply, stable competitor pricing and sluggish export demand, the near-term balance points to sideways price movement until policy clarity arrives. A more bullish turn would likely require either an unexpectedly high TMO purchase price, quality problems in parts of the crop, or a demand surprise from key importers once prices are known.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Industrial buyers: With comfortable supply and stable EUR prices, phased cover for Q4 needs at current levels appears reasonable, but avoid overcommitting before the TMO price announcement, which could reset Turkish offer ideas either higher or lower.
• Exporters in Turkey: Maintain a cautious forward sales strategy until TMO and Tariş reveal purchase prices. Locking in large, low-priced contracts now risks margin compression if policy support is ultimately more generous than expected.
• Producers / Growers: While withholding product supports price aspirations, large visible carryover and global competition limit upside. A diversified sales strategy after the TMO announcement—spreading deliveries over time—may reduce price risk versus waiting for a single seasonal peak.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Turkish sultanas FOB (Malatya): Sideways to slightly firm over the next three days, as exporters test marginally higher offers but face buyer resistance.
• Indian raisins FOB (New Delhi): Largely stable; no immediate catalyst for sharp moves versus current levels around EUR 2.0–2.6/kg depending on type.
• Northwest Europe warehouse (FCA) mixed origins: Sideways; well-supplied positions and buyer caution ahead of Turkish price signals cap any near-term rally.