Rape Market Update: Harvest Slump Drives Volatility Amid Global Supply Shifts

Rapeseed markets are entering a particularly volatile phase, marked by sharply reduced harvest expectations and increasing sensitivity to global oilseed dynamics. The latest estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture project a rapeseed harvest of only 3 million tonnes — a dramatic decrease from last season’s 5.7 million tonnes. This downturn injects significant upward pressure into the futures market, despite global factors such as the recent firmness in Canadian Canola futures and volatile moves in related vegetable oils weighing on sentiment.

Meanwhile, improved weather for canola harvesting in the Canadian Prairies has tempered bullish enthusiasm, revealing just how closely traders are tracking cross-commodity and weather-linked influences. In Europe, MATIF rapeseed futures continue to reflect these conflicting drivers, with prices stabilising after recent swings. Physical markets across Ukraine and France report steady values, but the stark contraction in available supply has the market on alert for further price action. As crop forecasts tighten, importers and processors will be watching weather, currency moves, and speculative flows with heightened urgency to secure supply in a fast-changing environment.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
MATIF (Euronext)	Aug 25	473.00 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady/Neutral
MATIF (Euronext)	Nov 25	484.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady/Neutral
ICE (Canada)	Nov 25	700.30 CAD/t	+0.06%	Mildly Bullish
ICE (Canada)	Jan 26	709.50 CAD/t	+0.11%	Mildly Bullish

🔎 Physical Market Prices (selected offers)

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.55	2025-07-18
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.56	2025-07-18
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	2025-07-04

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Europe: The estimated EU-27 rapeseed crop continues to shrink, with the key producers’ output falling to nearly half of last year’s level. Imports are likely to rise to compensate.
• Canada: Canola’s harvest outlook remains positive as Prairies weather has improved, but the carryover is modest after smaller previous crops. This tightness will likely support prices globally.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Steady physical prices suggest underlying supply constraints persist despite stable export flows so far.
• Global Balance: Anticipated drawdown in major exporter stocks (EU, Canada, Australia) sets the stage for a globally tighter rapeseed supply in 2025/26.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Sharp drop in rapeseed production (3.0 Mt vs. 5.7 Mt previous) is the core bullish driver.
• Firmer canola futures in Canada, tempered by bearish influences from US soyoil and the broader oilseed complex.
• Speculative flows on MATIF remain cautious; open interest is high, indicating readiness for volatility.
• Currency: EUR weakness could support EU export competitiveness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe: Current weather is broadly favourable for the remainder of the rapeseed harvest. No immediate threats forecasted, supporting yield stability in late fields.
• Canada: Prairie conditions are improving with recent rains, reducing earlier drought stress. This supports the ongoing canola harvest and should limit further yield losses.
• Black Sea: Mild conditions aid late crop development, but earlier heat and dryness have already capped yield potential.

🌏 Global Supply Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2023/24 Output (Mt)	Trend
EU-27	~3.0	5.7	↓↓
Canada	Estimate: 18.4*	18.3	→
Australia	Estimate: 5.9*	6.5	↓
Ukraine	Estimate: 3.7*	4.1	↓

*Estimates, subject to updates.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Short-term tightness in EU rapeseed likely leads to bouts of volatility, the risk of upward price spikes on supply shocks.
• Monitor Canadian crop progress and ICE futures for leading signals.
• Watch the broader oilseed complex for moves in soyoil and palm oil impacting cross-commodity spreads.
• End-users: Secure forward cover for Q3/Q4 2025, consider using options for risk management.
• Producers: Lock in prices on rallies but leave some exposure to benefit from possible further supply downgrades globally.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• MATIF (Euronext): 470–485 EUR/t (sideways, minor upward bias if Black Sea supply tightens)
• ICE Canola (CAD): 695–710 CAD/t (steady, modest support from weather)
• Physical Markets (Ukraine/France): 0.55–0.56 EUR/kg (steady, tight supply underpins base)