Rapeseed Market Braces for Short Crop, Trade Policy Jitters, and EU Competition

The global rapeseed market is in a state of heightened volatility as supply tightens and policy uncertainty looms over major exporting regions. In Ukraine, a significant drop in output is expected for the 2025 harvest year, largely driven by adverse spring weather and extensive frost damage in southern areas. As of early July, Ukrainian farmers have harvested only 71,600 tons from 46,000 hectares, resulting in yields well below historical norms and foreshadowing a total country harvest of just 2.4–2.5 million tons—far less than the 3.7 million tons reported in 2024. Anticipation of imminent export duties has further complicated trade, with local exporters rushing to move stocks and temporarily boosting port prices by $5–10 per ton as buyers seek to avoid potential tariff costs.

However, most Ukrainian producers are holding off contracts, betting on further price upside post-duty imposition. Simultaneously, the EU, still the world’s biggest rapeseed importer, sees growing competition from Australia and Canada, whose surging canola exports have dampened immediate demand and capped price growth. The approval of GMO soybeans in the EU also signals a potential shift in processing demand and stricter competition for Ukraine’s non-GMO supply. With global rapeseed oil prices softening €20–30 per ton in the last month, market sentiment is cautious, especially amid strong old crop stocks and new harvest optimism in Europe. All eyes are now on weather patterns across the Black Sea and Western Europe, as these will determine both yield potential and the future course for prices.

📈 Market Prices Snapshot

Exchange/Location	Product	Spec/Type	Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Paris Euronext (Aug’25 Futures)	Rapeseed	Standard	€464/t ($545/t)	-4.7%	Bearish
Germany (Factory Delivery, Aug–Sep)	Rapeseed	Standard	€460–465/t	Unch.	Cautious
UA, Odesa (FCA)	42% oil, 98% purity	Rapeseed	€0.55/kg (≈€550/t)	Stable	Firm
UA, Kyiv (FCA)	42% oil, 98% purity	Rapeseed	€0.54/kg (≈€540/t)	Stable	Firm
Paris Physical (Spot, FOB)	Rapeseed	Standard	€0.55/kg (≈€550/t)	Stable	Neutral
ICE Canada (Jul’25 Futures)	Canola	Standard	686 CAD/t ($502/t)	-3.5%	Bearish
ICE Canada (Nov’25 Futures)	Canola	Standard	696 CAD/t	-3.4%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine’s 2025 harvest sharply lower: 2.4–2.5 Mt (vs. 3.7 Mt in 2024); drought & frost in south push yields below average.
• Export duties anticipated: Potential tariffs on Ukrainian rapeseed/soybean exports could slow shipments but raise pre-duty port demand/prices.
• EU import flows shift: 2024/25 EU rapeseed imports up 29% y/y to 7.33 Mt—Australia (3.48 Mt, 47.5%), Canada (1.05 Mt, 14.3%), Ukraine (2.4 Mt, 32.9% down from 55.6% last year).
• Producer reluctance: Ukrainian farmers delay contracts, expecting upward price moves after duties take effect.
• Rapeseed oil price drop: EU spot rapeseed oil falls by €20–30/t, applying pressure to seed prices in both spot and forward markets.
• Canadian & Australian surge: Canada’s canola exports up 51% y/y to 9.11 Mt as of mid-June; Australia’s 2024/25 exports at 4.81 Mt.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• Ukraine: Recent weather reports indicate persistent dry conditions in the south and central oblasts, limiting potential for late improvement. Central and northern regions expecting patchy showers, but not enough to offset drought damage.
• Western Europe: France and Germany forecast mild, moderate rainfall over the next week—beneficial for late ripening, but harvest weather mostly favorable for fieldwork.
• Canada/Australia: Canadian Prairies report average moisture reserves; no immediate weather threat, but early July heat spells could stress late-sown crops. Australian eastern states see frequent rains, aiding canola development.

Weather risks remain a wildcard for yields, especially for Ukrainian and EU crops, which faced spring drought stress. Short-term market impact: weather remains a supportive factor for prices should adverse events escalate.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Positioning

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2023/24 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Exports (Mt)	2023/24 Exports (Mt)
Ukraine	2.4–2.5	3.7	2.4	3.16
EU	~19*	19.5*	7.33 (imports)	7.47 (imports)
Australia	~5 (est.)	4.8	3.48	1.87
Canada	18 (est.)	18.4	9.11	~6.0
Germany	~3.5	3.8	N/A	N/A

*EU output estimates subject to in-season revision. Ukrainian harvest will weigh on total EU supply, but imports from Australia/Canada provide offset.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Paris Euronext (Front Month): Rangebound (€460–470/t), strong support at €460/t, but rallies capped by old crop overhang and weak oil prices.
• Germany, Factory Delivery: €460–465/t, stable, possible firmer on weather risks but little upside short-term.
• Ukraine FOB (Port): $535–545/t until July 20, then potential sharp adjustment lower if export duties confirmed—watch legislator vote.
• ICE Canada Canola: 680–700 CAD/t (front contracts), vulnerable to further pressure from weak vegoil demand.

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukrainian export duty legislation closely—pre-duty shipment window may offer last high-priced trade until policy clarity emerges.
• For crushers: Secure short-term supply in EU while demand is passive and prices are capped by surplus stocks and slack oil.
• For exporters in Ukraine: Prioritize earliest shipment, as post-duty pricing may be less attractive given rapid harvest progress and global competition.
• For end-users: Consider forward contracts for autumn/winter delivery—risk of tightening supply if Ukraine’s short crop can’t be replaced by new Canadian/Australian flows in Q4.
• Monitor further growth in Australian and Canadian export pace—these origins are set to challenge Ukrainian market share, especially in the EU.
• Weather volatility remains the big wildcard for price spikes—continue to hedge exposure through options/futures as risk increases.