January was the consolidated mode for red chilli, and in the subsequent month, it gradually hiked to $2.06 per kg, and the northward rally continued in March, April and May. The stagnancy was seen in June. The progress in charts was witnessed in July. However, in August and September, a minor de-growth was seen. After a bearish trend, a bullish rally was observed in the charts for October and November. However, in December, the hope of an increment in prices died.
January-April
In the initial month, the market experienced mixed opinions as the thrips virus caused extensive damage to the chilli crop in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Thus, a wait-and-watch scenario emerged. The following month saw a minor correction as red chilli crop arrival was petite in the market, and according to sources, the trend of low arrival was due to the farmers’ expectation that the crop price would go up. In March, due to massive arrivals, the month’s onset saw stability and went on bullish at the end of the month. April was the cruellest month for T.S Eliot, but for the trades of Chilli, it became the best month as the domestic demand saw an uprise, and farmers saw it as an opportunity to sell their goods at high prices to stockists.
May-August
The sunniest month, May, became a cherry on the cake for red Chilli as the charts saw a bullish engulfing pattern, and the reason for the hike was the rise in the third yield of Chilli. A range-bound trend was seen in June, and the two primary reasons for this were the scorching heat in North India kept the demand suppressed. Second, the vacation in the Guntur market influenced the market to trade in sluggishness. Chilli saw an uprise from July onwards, and there were many reasons for this. Firstly, the third yield of Chilli created a demand and supply gap. Secondly, there was chaos in South India as there were speculations of crop damage due to rains, and lastly, the exports were predicted to increase due to reduced freight charges. August saw a range-bound trade in Chilli, and growth was noted in September as export demand decreased drastically and the domestic front refrained from purchasing as they had enough stock.
September-December
A bullish rally was noted due to increased household demand as the festive seasons arrived. And secondly, most good-quality crops were damaged due to natural calamities, and thus the arrivals were comparatively weak from estimates in October. Farmers’ sales of red chillies had decreased relatively in hopes of getting better prices in the future, and thus Chilli became a cash-cow commodity. However, due to hefty arrivals and no buying support, December started with an optimistic atmosphere.
Overall, Chilli proved to be a good commodity that helped earn profits for farmers and retailers, but now the future seems dark as the arrivals are more and the buying support is comparatively low. Thus, the new year will bring Chilli down as no factors support the growth of Chilli in the long run as of now.
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