Slight Price Correction for Turkish Hazelnuts

After little demand from Europe in the last few weeks due to the public holidays and the associated holidays, we have been able to perceive increased interest in the market for Turkish hazelnuts again on a broad front this week. The prevailing tenor, however, was that the prices were unacceptable and that people wanted to postpone buying decisions. Producers reacted to this behaviour by going back to the drawing board and adjusting prices downwards accordingly. In conjunction with the weaker Turkish lira, we see that prices have dropped significantly compared to the previous week.

What is now clearly picking up is the rumour mill.

However, we do not see the decline in prices as a sign of a trend reversal, but merely as a return to a “reasonable” calculation after the dynamics of the last few weeks. Besides the restraint in exports, the Turkish domestic hazelnut market, on the other hand, continues to record good sales figures. Even though some covers are still outstanding, we do not expect demand to pick up significantly in the coming days. What is now clearly picking up, however, is the rumour mill. Currently, temperatures on the Black Sea coast are above average for this time of year, which is leading to an early vegetation stage. This is not yet critical, but the admonishers are already starting to make policy. This is probably only the beginning of the soft facts for the coming months.

We expect a high demand for information from European buyers in the coming weeks, but only for individual deals. As the inventory situation also seems to be good, these are likely to be the first to be taken.

Concerning developments in the currency markets, we note that the euro has regained some strength against the Turkish lira and the US dollar. Accordingly, there is a slight downward trend in the Turkish lira. Next week, the monetary policy committee of the Turkish central bank will meet again. Experts do not expect the interest rate to be adjusted. Therefore, on balance, we do not expect any surprises for the coming week.

bullet points

• Commodity prices decline compared to the previous week.
• Price correction is due to the exchange rate, as well as to the weakening of the dynamics of the price increase.
• New price levels are currently not accepted by European buyers. Purchase decisions are therefore being postponed.
• Demand in the Turkish domestic hazelnut market remains good.
• The euro is gaining strength again. The Turkish lira is thus trending weaker.
• The price lists of the individual exporters continue to show clear differences, but the differences are becoming increasingly smaller in total.

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