The global fennel market is navigating turbulent waters following a major logistics shift by the US-based Food Truck Alliance. New restrictions focused on ethylene oxide (EtO) and chemical residues in spice shipments from India, particularly Gujarat, have slowed exports of key products including fennel, cumin, and isabgol. While not a formal import ban, the increased inspection protocols at US entry points are causing significant delays and reducing the effective number of containers cleared. This has sparked concern among Indian exporters, with a short-term export drop of 10–20% expected from Gujarat—the engine of India’s spice supply chain.
These disruptions come at a critical juncture: demand in Western markets was set to rebound post-summer, and Indian spice exporters were eyeing gains in the latter half of 2025. With stockists holding off and farmers in major producing regions left in limbo, attention is shifting to alternative destinations in Europe and the Middle East. Meanwhile, upward pressure on domestic prices is evident as availability tightens and short-term uncertainty rules procurement. As the market digests these developments, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the days ahead, making close monitoring of logistics flows and compliance policies essential for all participants.
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Fennel
whole
FOB 2.56 €/kg
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Fennel seeds
grade - A
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FOB 1.17 €/kg
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Fennel seeds
grade - A
98%
FOB 0.91 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Fennel Prices
| Product | Type | Purity | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fennel | Whole | – | Yes | 2.57 | 2.55 | +0.02 | 2025-08-02 | Firm/Bullish |
| Fennel seeds | Grade A | 99% | No | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Stable/Firm |
| Fennel seeds | Grade A | 98% | No | 0.91 | 0.90 | +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Steady |
| Fennel seeds | – | 99% | No | 1.04 | 1.02 | +0.02 | 2025-08-02 | Firm |
| Fennel seeds | – | 98% | No | 0.95 | 0.94 | +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Firm |
| Fennel | Powder | – | Yes | 2.70 | 2.67 | +0.03 | 2025-08-02 | Upward trend |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- US Logistics Restrictions: Temporary constraints on shipments with EtO residues are hindering exports, especially to the US market (10–20% short-term decline expected).
- Shift in Export Focus: Indian exporters are redirecting consignments to Europe and the Middle East amid uncertainty in US-bound flows.
- Domestic Market Impact: Stockists in Gujarat are hesitant to buy, and farmer procurement is subdued on unclear export outlook.
- Post-Summer Demand Recovery: While Western demand is rising, supply constraints are tightening availability and strengthening prices.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventory: Rising stockpiles due to slower US clearances, but offset by rerouted exports and localized pick-up in other regions.
- Farmer Impact: Procurement from farmers is delayed, raising risk of quality degradation if weather turns unfavorable in storage hubs.
- Speculative Activity: No major speculative build-up reported, but short-term traders are taking positions anticipating a possible US policy relaxation.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Last month’s sentiment was neutral-to-firm, with anticipation of stronger US demand; now, sentiment is mixed to bullish due to export disruptions and tight spot availability.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Effects
- North Gujarat (Key Fennel Districts): Weather has been largely favorable so far, but delayed procurement and monsoon persistence pose risks for stored crops. Crop quality may suffer if wet conditions extend into August.
- Other Producing Regions: No major adverse events currently; however, close monitoring is warranted as exporters delay purchases, increasing storage and spoilage risks.
- Forecast: Monsoon activity slightly above average in Saurashtra and Kutch regions; no flooding, but elevated humidity may affect freshly harvested stock held for export.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Production (2023/24) | Export Share | Stocks | Market Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~855,000 tons | >60% | Elevated (due to slow exports) | Facing logistical backlog, switching focus to non-US markets |
| Turkey | ~50,000 tons | 5% | Stable | Balanced supply-demand outlook |
| Egypt | ~45,000 tons | 4% | Adequate | Slight uptick in EU-bound shipments |
| China | ~32,000 tons | 2% | Low | Domestic demand priority |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📊 Short-term volatility is likely to remain high as market waits for clarity on US import policy and new compliance measures.
- 🔄 Exporters: Diversify destination markets swiftly and consider hedging against further logistics shocks.
- 🛒 Stockists: Monitor policy signals and procure only on confirmed export contracts to avoid inventory risk.
- 🌱 Farmers: Store harvested fennel under optimal conditions; hold off large-scale sales unless opportunity emerges in domestic market or alternative exports.
- 📉 Buyers in EU/MENA: Take advantage of increased Indian offers, but monitor shipment reliability.
- 📝 Overall: Upward price pressure seen in India, but international markets remain adequately supplied as rerouted Indian cargoes enter alternative destinations.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi, EUR/kg)
| Date | Fennel (Whole, Organic) | Fennel seeds (99% Gd A) | Fennel seeds (98% Gd A) | Market Tone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-03 | 2.58 | 1.17 | 0.92 | Bullish |
| 2025-08-04 | 2.58–2.59 | 1.18 | 0.92–0.93 | Bullish |
| 2025-08-05 | 2.59 | 1.19 | 0.93 | Bullish/Volatile |