The global cardamom market is currently experiencing a sharp—yet likely temporary—price rally. Over the past month, wholesale large cardamom prices in Nepal climbed by $1.20 per kg, reaching $17.76 per kg, and trading even higher for select lots based on quality. This surge follows a slowdown in arrivals from Nepal’s main growing regions, where weather disruptions hampered harvest and supply chain efficiency. The momentum is further fueled by robust export demand, particularly from India, though buyers there remain cautious in the face of ongoing volatility.
With nearly one-third of Nepal’s crop pending harvest and arrivals expected to accelerate after the 22–23 September window, the market is bracing for a possible correction as supply side pressures ease. Meanwhile, the broader price environment is shaped by global inventory management, speculative activities, and weather forecasts that remain key for harvest quality and timing. Professionals and stakeholders should watch for stabilizing trends in the coming weeks as more definitive data on production and arrivals emerges.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 24.85 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
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📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | 1W Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | New Delhi | 24.85 | 0 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | Green 8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 24.31 | 0 | Firm |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7.5 mm | IN | New Delhi | 23.51 | 0 | Firm |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7-7.2 mm | IN | New Delhi | 22.09 | 0 | Firm |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7.5-8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 18.07 | 0 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 21.14 | 0 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.0-6.5 mm (99%) | IN | New Delhi | 16.3 | 0 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Nepal, the main source of large cardamom, is facing restricted arrivals due to weather and logistical delays. 30% of the crop remains to be harvested, with major harvests due after September 22–23.
- Demand: Indian demand is steady but not robust, as buyers hesitate to commit amid price swings and uncertain export trajectories.
- Global trade: Export orders have been limited by price volatility, but short-term buying interest from exporters contributed to recent gains.
- Historical comparison: Current prices are tracking above last year’s average by 8–10%, echoing supply-driven rallies of recent years—though such spikes have previously ended abruptly once arrivals resumed.
📊 Fundamentals
- Market drivers:
- Smaller arrivals from key districts (Nepal, India’s Sikkim) due to adverse weather.
- Logistical bottlenecks in mountainous supply chains.
- Speculative buying by exporters expecting firm Indian demand.
- Partial harvest completion leaves supply-side uncertainty for next few weeks.
- Speculative positioning: Anecdotal evidence suggests cautious positioning by Indian traders due to recent volatility and muted export inquiries.
- Inventories: Global inventories are moderately tight but expected to ease as harvest accelerates late September onward.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Nepal Eastern Districts: Recent monsoon rains impeded harvest operations, resulting in delayed arrivals. Forecasts indicate scattered showers persisting until mid-September, after which clearer weather should facilitate remaining harvesting and accelerate shipments.
- India (Sikkim, Darjeeling, Northeast): Sporadic rainfall reported, but expected to subside post-monsoon, supporting late-season crop quality and timely market movement.
- Outlook: Weather normalization will likely boost arrivals and temporarily soften prices after late September.
🌐 Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Est. Production (tonnes) | 2023/24 Est. Stocks (tonnes) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 8,200 | 2,000 | Main source for large cardamom. Stocks to increase after late Sept harvests |
| India | 2,400 | 600 | Steady local consumption; import reliance high |
| Bhutan | 1,800 | 300 | Minor global player; regional integration with Nepal |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short term (1–2 weeks):
- Expect volatility to persist until new arrivals ramp up post-September 22.
- Buy only for immediate needs; avoid inventory build-up at current high prices.
- Medium term (3–6 weeks):
- Prices likely to soften as harvest volume increases; watch weather for yield risk.
- Opportunistic selling recommended on any further rally before arrival pressure builds.
- Long term (post-October):
- Market is expected to stabilize; seasonal demand uptick ahead of festivals may provide price floor.
- Monitor Indian import policy and global consumption trends for strategic hedging.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Whole, 7.5-8 mm) | 18.07 | 17.80 – 18.25 | 17.80 – 18.25 | Sideways/Weak |
| New Delhi (Powder) | 24.85 | 24.65 – 25.00 | 24.65 – 25.00 | Stable |
| Nepal Wholesale | 17.76 (USD) | 17.50 – 18.00 (USD) | 17.50 – 18.00 (USD) | Softening |
