Turkish Hazelnut Kernels Ease Lower as New-Crop Weather Stays Benign

Hazelnut kernel prices from Turkey have softened modestly, with FOB Istanbul offers drifting lower across most grades while demand remains steady and weather in the Black Sea belt is seasonally mild. The market tone is mildly bearish in the very short term, with buyers in no rush and sellers still well-covered on old crop. Turkish kernel prices have slipped compared with early May as free-market in‑shell prices along the Black Sea coast also eased slightly in recent days, reflecting comfortable stocks and the absence of immediate weather threats to the 2026 harvest. At the same time, Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, and international demand from confectionery and chocolate manufacturers is structurally firm, preventing a more pronounced correction. With Istanbul and the wider region facing warm, largely dry early‑summer conditions, the next three days are likely to see continued sideways-to-softer pricing unless a weather or currency shock intervenes.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1 EUR = 1.10 USD for international comparison; actual trade may differ.

Turkish in‑shell free‑market prices in key coastal provinces (Ordu, Giresun, Samsun) have been broadly stable to slightly lower over the last two days, confirming a soft undertone in the physical market. Online price trackers for free-market hazelnuts in Turkey on 7 June 2026 show mostly flat or marginally weaker quotations compared with late May, consistent with the kernel offer trend.  

Supply & Demand

Turkey continues to dominate global hazelnut supply, accounting for around 70–80% of world output, concentrated in the Black Sea provinces of Ordu, Samsun, Giresun and surrounding areas.   Recent industry balances for the 2025/26 season indicate that total Turkish supply is lower than the previous year but still ample, with comfortable ending stocks, while global consumption remains robust.  

On the demand side, core buyers in Europe’s confectionery sector remain active, but there is no sign of panic buying; some downstream users are reportedly cautious on volumes given still‑high end‑product prices and consumer pushback. Wholesale price benchmarks for Turkish hazelnuts compiled for 2026 show a relatively broad indicative range, but current FOB kernel offers from Istanbul sit in the upper half of that range, reflecting Turkey’s strong quality premium versus other origins.  

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the short-term picture is balanced: stocks remain adequate after a decent 2025 harvest, and new-crop expectations for 2026 are cautiously optimistic. Recent analytical and industry reports highlight that, while Turkey’s 2025/26 crop is smaller than the previous season, beginning stocks help cushion supply to the export market.  

Weather is a key short‑term risk driver. Istanbul and much of northwestern Turkey are currently experiencing early‑summer conditions with daytime highs in the mid‑20s °C, limited rainfall and no major storm systems flagged through 12 June 2026.   For the hazelnut belt along the Black Sea (Ordu, Giresun and neighbouring provinces), this pattern implies generally favourable conditions for nut development, with no fresh reports of frost, hail or excessive rainfall in the past few days. In the absence of weather scares, speculative support for prices is muted.

Short-Term Outlook

• Price bias (3–5 days): Slightly softer to sideways for Turkish kernels FOB Istanbul, given steady but unspectacular demand and benign weather.
• Weather impact: Warm, mostly dry conditions support crop progress and ease immediate supply concerns, capping near-term rallies.
• Key watchpoints: Any shift to heavy rainfall or storms in the Black Sea region, sudden TRY volatility, or new procurement tenders from major confectioners could quickly change sentiment.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Consider layering in nearby coverage at current levels, particularly for 11–13 mm and roasted meal, where week‑on‑week declines are notable. Avoid over‑committing far forward until clearer signals emerge on 2026 crop size.
• Exporters / shellers in Turkey: With Istanbul FOB offers easing, maintain price discipline on premium sizes (13–15 mm and above) but be prepared to offer small discounts on lower grades to keep throughput and cash flow steady.
• Speculative participants: The lack of a weather or policy shock points to range‑bound trade in the very short term; opportunistic buying on dips may be preferable to chasing rallies.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Istanbul FOB kernels (all grades, EUR/kg): Trading around 6.2–7.9 EUR/kg; directional bias for 10–12 June 2026 is slightly softer to flat, with limited downside absent a currency move or sudden demand slowdown.
• Turkish in‑shell free‑market (Black Sea region): Local price assessments suggest a stable to very slightly weaker trend into the weekend, in line with comfortable physical availability and calm weather.