Similar to the previous week, this trading week in the Turkish hazelnut market was also very quiet in terms of demand. Both domestic demand and export demand have come to a virtual standstill. The Islamic fasting month of Ramadan begins next Thursday. The corresponding purchases were already made in January and February, so there is currently no more impetus from the domestic market and European buyers continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Many buyers expect more favourable prices after the presidential election in May or the publication of the harvest estimate in May. The hope is essentially based on the fact that after the election the Turkish central bank will abandon the expensive support of the Turkish national currency and there will then be a significant devaluation of the Turkish lira. As already mentioned, this is a realistic scenario, but it remains pure currency speculation, which will then probably be accompanied by an increase in inflation and a rapid adjustment of commodity prices to the corresponding circumstances. In our view, this would then also only be a phenomenon that would occur in a short time window.
Slight downward price correction
In terms of commodity prices, we could again see a small downward price correction in the Turkish hazelnut market. This is due to the lack of demand. To put this into perspective, however, we have to say that the traded volumes at these prices are extremely low. In our opinion, if demand were to pick up, prices would quickly be corrected upwards again. Also, farmers are hardly in possession of significant quantities of raw material any more, so a price slide across the board is also unlikely.
There is also nothing new to report about exchange rate developments. The Turkish lira is oscillating somewhat up and down within the framework of the past weeks. The impact on export price lists is minor.
The weather situation on the Black Sea coast is also within the normal range for this time of year.
We do not expect any change in the current situation of the Turkish hazelnut market in the coming weeks. The timing of Ramadan is also such that no impact on the hazelnut market is to be expected.
Bullet points
- Lack of export and domestic demand, as well as competitive pressure, again cause raw material prices to fall slightly.
- Export prices are therefore falling slightly at a constant exchange rate.
- The market is not yet busy for either third-quarter or fourth-quarter cover.
- Weather situation on the Black Sea coast is currently not critical.
- The Turkish lira remains relatively stable against the euro and the US dollar.
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