On the Turkish hazelnut sellers’ side, a certain disillusionment sets in. Despite intensive efforts, they are unable to persuade buyers to close deals. There is still some interest, but the level of the last few weeks does not seem feasible at the moment. In line with weak export demand, we have seen commodity prices soften this week.
However, it has to be said that no more raw material is currently being sold by the farmers. The farmers who still have stocks are continuing to hold them back. The only raw material currently flowing into the market comes from TMO sales. Here, exporters have until 10 March to pay for the allocated commodity and organise the collection. Therefore, the current situation should also be treated with a certain degree of caution. For the next two months, no goods from the TMO’s stock, nor the farmers, are likely to reach the market.
First flower count carried out
As already mentioned, the critical phase in the development of the hazelnut bushes is now slowly beginning. The next 3-4 weeks can still be seen as rather uncritical, but from April at the latest, the weather forecast will be watched very closely. The first flower count was also carried out last week. The result is in line with expectations. Fewer flowers were counted than last year. But this was also expected after two good harvests in a row. The first counts are still very inaccurate, which is why many market participants pay little attention to this forecast.
However, the statement encourages speculative behaviour on the part of farmers and the hopes of some exporters for firmer prices. It also makes for a certain caution concerning offers for the 2023 harvest, where most sellers are still holding back. If offers are currently being made, they include a certain risk premium.
Stable exchange rate
There is little to report regarding the development of the exchange rate. The exchange rates have remained quite stable over the week and have had hardly any effect on the export price lists.
We continue to expect a wait-and-see market in the coming weeks. We suspect that risk-averse buyers may still make small covers, but assume that most market participants will continue to wait. Concerning the 2023 harvest, there are individual enquiries for orientation, but no concrete buying interest yet.
Bullet points
• Lack of export demand puts pressure on commodity prices. These fall slightly.
• First flower count brings a lower forecast than last year, as expected.
• Farmers hold back their remaining stocks.
• Market prepares for weeks of waiting and watching.
• Exchange rate remains stable in weekly comparison.
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