Turkish Hazelnuts Ease Lower as Big 2026/27 Crop Looms

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are drifting lower as weak spot demand meets rapidly improving expectations for a much larger 2026/27 crop. The market remains well supplied in the short term, and buyers currently hold the advantage, though high local inflation and elevated processing costs limit downside. The export market in Istanbul shows a gradual softening across key hazelnut kernel grades, reflecting subdued buying and growing confidence in a significantly bigger upcoming Turkish crop. Recent industry estimates point to a sharp year‑on‑year production increase for 2026/27, which is already pressuring offers. At the same time, domestic free‑market prices along the Black Sea coast have eased in mid‑June compared with early June indications, confirming a softer tone. Weather in the Black Sea hazelnut belt is seasonally mild with no immediate stress, reinforcing expectations of good yield potential. In this environment, short‑term price risks remain skewed slightly to the downside, especially for standard natural kernels.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and expressed in EUR/kg, converted from current export and regional TRY-based indications.

Domestic free‑market in key Black Sea provinces (e.g. Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) shows slightly lower mid‑June farm‑gate levels compared with the start of June, confirming the softening trend reported by local price trackers and regional news outlets.

Supply, Demand & Weather

Turkey remains the dominant global origin, and recent market commentary highlights a very strong recovery in 2026/27 production. According to industry news referencing International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) figures, Turkey’s 2026/27 hazelnut crop is forecast around 810,000 tonnes, up roughly 56% from the prior season. This sharp expected increase is the key bearish driver behind the latest price easing.

On the demand side, European confectionery and chocolate demand is steady but not buoyant; there are no major short‑term demand shocks in the last few days, and buyers appear in no rush, taking advantage of the softer market to negotiate lower differentials. Broader commentary on processed hazelnut trade still notes high structural input costs in Turkey and a policy bias toward supporting grower incomes, which prevents prices from collapsing despite softer consumption.

Weather across the Turkish Black Sea hazelnut belt (including Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon and Samsun) has been seasonally mild in mid‑June with no reports of frost, heatwave or major storm damage in the past few days. Short‑range forecasts for the region point to typical late‑spring to early‑summer conditions, supporting ongoing nut filling and reinforcing the positive crop outlook.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Benign weather + higher crop forecast: The combination of favourable growing conditions and the sharply higher 2026/27 crop forecast is the main weight on Istanbul FOB offers and Black Sea farm‑gate prices.
• Weak spot buying: Local and export buyers show limited urgency, with recent Turkish reports explicitly mentioning soft demand as prices declined in early June.
• Cost and inflation floor: High Turkish inflation and increased processing costs (packaging, energy, labour) create a cost floor, especially for processed forms such as roasted kernels and meals, moderating the pace of price declines.
• Policy backdrop: Analyses of Turkey’s processed hazelnut sector emphasize that government support and intervention strategies aim to stabilize farm incomes, which can keep international prices elevated relative to purely market‑clearing levels.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (next 1–2 weeks): With a large crop expectation and no weather threat, Istanbul FOB prices for standard natural kernels are likely to edge slightly lower or trade sideways, especially if demand does not accelerate before the main new‑crop marketing period.
• For importers/users: Consider staggered buying, keeping coverage short to medium term while the bearish crop story is being fully priced in. Reserve additional volume for potential dips if further crop confirmations arrive.
• For Turkish exporters: Focus on securing forward contracts with value‑added grades (roasted, diced, meal), where processing cost and quality premiums offer more resilience than bulk natural kernels.
• For industrial buyers (confectionery, spreads): Use the current easing to lengthen coverage into the early 2026/27 season, but remain mindful that structural cost and policy floors may limit extreme downside.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only, TR)

Based on current Istanbul FOB offers, domestic Black Sea market signals and the short‑term weather outlook, the following directional view applies for the next three days (17–19 June 2026):

• Istanbul FOB, natural kernels (11–13 mm & 13–15 mm): Slightly softer to stable (▼ / →) as sellers compete for limited spot demand.
• Istanbul FOB, processed forms (roasted, diced, meal): Mostly stable (→) with a mild downward bias on meal where competition is strongest.
• Black Sea domestic free‑market (farm‑gate): Slight further easing (▼) possible, especially in higher‑yielding districts where growers seek to clear old‑crop stocks ahead of harvest.