Turkish Hazelnuts Ease Lower as New-Crop Pressure Meets Weak Local Demand

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging lower in early September, pressured by new-crop availability and a soft domestic spot market, despite historically high TMO support prices. The result is a modest EUR‑denominated correction from late August levels, with buyers gaining slightly more bargaining power on conventional kernels while organic remains firm. In Turkey’s Black Sea belt, harvest and export permits for high-altitude orchards were completed by late August, and physical flow into the market is now accelerating. Producer expectations anchored to TMO’s 255/250 TL/kg Giresun/Levant floor contrast with weaker free-market bids, where some regions are trading far below intervention levels. Export buyers are watching this gap closely, as it caps downside in TL but still allows some softening in EUR terms thanks to a strong EUR/TRY. Weather is seasonally mixed but not yet threatening, so near-term price action remains driven by currency and marketing behavior rather than crop risk.

Prices

Using an indicative EUR/TRY of 56.7 on 10 September 2026, current Turkish FOB offers translate as follows:

On the domestic TL market, recent spot indications show free-market Giresun and Levant hazelnut frequently trading well below TMO’s official 255/250 TL/kg levels, with some West Black Sea quotes dipping towards 140–180 TL/kg depending on quality and region. This underlines the current bearish undertone at origin despite the high policy floor.

Supply & Demand

Turkey’s Ministry of Trade confirms that 2026 harvest and export windows for high-altitude hazelnut areas in Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun and Tokat were open from late August, implying that new-crop arrivals from higher slopes are now feeding the market. Early-season assessments from trade and institutional sources point to another large Turkish crop around or above recent years, with some reports flagging potential for an 800,000 mt harvest, which reinforces a comfortable global supply picture.

TMO’s intervention remains the key balancing factor: the agency is purchasing 2026/27 hazelnuts at 255 TL/kg for Giresun quality and 250 TL/kg for Levant at 50% kernel yield, levels confirmed across official and regional reporting. However, the widening gap between these support prices and weaker private-sector bids suggests some producers are holding back, while shellers and exporters leverage softer local demand to negotiate discounts, particularly on standard conventional grades.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short-range forecasts for the central and eastern Black Sea—covering Ordu, Giresun and Trabzon—indicate seasonally mild temperatures with intermittent showers over the next three days, conditions that are typical for early September and not currently threatening to orchards. Local market commentary does highlight that heavy showers at times in late August complicated crop drying in some coastal areas, but no widespread damage has been reported so far.

With the main physical harvest window already passed for low and mid altitudes and high-altitude areas now largely completed, weather risks shift from yield to post-harvest quality and logistics. At this stage, the absence of a major weather shock keeps the supply outlook broadly comfortable and allows prices to respond more to demand and currency dynamics than to agronomic stress.

Fundamentals & Currency

Fundamentally, the market is digesting a combination of: (1) large Turkish supply, (2) assertive TMO support at historically high nominal TL levels, and (3) subdued free-market demand, as evidenced by spot prices falling sharply below official floors in some regions. Global confectionery and ingredient demand remains broadly steady according to recent industry and trade assessments, but buying is highly price-sensitive after two years of elevated nut costs.

The currency backdrop is critical: the EUR/TRY has been trading around the mid‑50s in early September, maintaining strong EUR value versus TL. This allows exporters to discount modestly in TL to meet market while preserving EUR margins, explaining why EUR-based FOB kernel offers are slipping only gradually even as local TL spot prices have corrected more visibly.

3-Day Outlook & Trading View

Market Outlook (next 3 days)

• Istanbul FOB kernels (TR origin): Slightly soft bias. Expect a further 0.5–1.5% downside in EUR terms as exporters test lower bids on natural and roasted forms, especially larger-volume parcels.
• Izmir FOB organic kernels: Mostly stable. Limited supply and niche demand should keep EUR prices broadly unchanged, with any moves likely within ±0.5%.
• Domestic Black Sea spot (Giresun/Levant): Volatile but with a soft undertone; continued discount to TMO reference levels likely as long as farmer sales persist and TMO intake capacity is stretched.

Trading Recommendations

• Industrial buyers (EU food/chocolate): Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on conventional Turkish kernels while EUR-based prices are easing but still anchored by TMO. Focus on 11–13 mm and roasted meal, where discounts are most visible.
• Exporters/origin shellers (TR): Maintain disciplined offer levels close to current EUR benchmarks; avoid aggressive undercutting that could quickly erode margins if EUR/TRY corrects lower.
• Organic segment buyers: Avoid waiting for a similar correction to conventional; the tightness and static offers suggest only limited downside. Use any short-term dips in EUR/TRY to lock in forward volumes.

Overall, absent a fresh demand shock or policy surprise from TMO, the near-term bias for Turkish hazelnut kernels is gently lower in EUR but with downside cushioned by high TL support prices and a still-firm currency backdrop.