Turkish Hazelnuts Near a Turning Point as Market Shifts to 2026 Crop

The global hazelnut market is sliding into a critical transition phase. Turkish prices have fallen sharply over recent months, but premium raw kernels show early signs of finding a floor while processed products continue to weaken. With the current season largely covered, trading interest is pivoting toward the 2026 crop and its weather, pest and policy risks. Export demand has improved only marginally and the present Turkish season is set to be the weakest in over two decades. At the same time, farmers remain reluctant sellers at current levels, and deteriorating stored inventories plus rising quality issues are tightening the truly premium segment. Against this backdrop, strong crops in alternative origins such as Chile and Georgia are reinforcing a pronounced two-tier global market.

Prices & Market Performance

Price levels for Turkish hazelnuts DDP Central Europe continue to reflect a heavily discounted market. Conventional raw kernels 11–13 mm are quoted around 7.97 EUR/kg, with organic 11–13 mm near 9.20 EUR/kg. Roasted kernels 11–13 mm trade close to 11.62 EUR/kg, while small roasted fractions (2–4 mm and 0–2 mm) fetch roughly 7.61 and 6.58 EUR/kg respectively. Hazelnut paste remains the weakest link, hovering near 5.80 EUR/kg.

The medium‑term performance underscores the depth of the correction: about −6% week-on-week, close to −47% over the quarter, and roughly −65% over the last six months. Even on a one‑year view prices are down more than a quarter, though they still sit comfortably above levels from 3–10 years ago. Parallel FOB offers from Turkey confirm the recent downtrend, with natural kernels 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm easing again at the start of June in EUR terms.

Supply, Demand & Two-Tier Structure

Export demand from Turkey has ticked up slightly, but overall offtake remains muted as many international buyers are fully covered for 2025/26. The current Turkish export campaign is on track to be the weakest in more than 20 years, reflecting both sluggish demand and the increasing ability of the main industry buyer to source from competing origins. Strong crops in Chile, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the USA are reinforcing this diversification and capping any immediate upside in bulk, lower-grade Turkish supply. At the same time, the market is clearly split. Large, high-quality natural kernels (11–13 mm and above, especially Giresun-type lots) are genuinely tight and pricing here is stable to slightly firmer. In contrast, small kernels, processed products, and lower-grade material remain in oversupply, dragging down average quotes. Ample availability of roasted small calibers, hazelnut paste and off-spec kernels continues to exert structural pressure on this discount segment.

Fundamentals & Raw Material Dynamics

Despite weak exports, Turkish farmers are resisting further price concessions. Many growers are unwilling to sell below prevailing levels, particularly with domestic inflation still near 30% and expectations that future state support prices (TMO) will be set above today’s spot market. As a result, current physical supply is being driven mainly by the unwinding of speculative positions rather than fresh farmer selling, with some traders forced to liquidate inventory due to financing constraints at quarter-end.

Quality is becoming a critical swing factor. Reports of severe hidden damage in stored lots, especially linked to the growing brown marmorated stink bug population, point to accelerating deterioration in inventories. Many consignments that appear visually acceptable are failing quality tests, which is tightening effective supply in the premium segment even while headline stocks remain large. This quality erosion, combined with a below‑average 2025 crop, underpins the medium‑term bullish case for high‑grade natural kernels.

2026 Crop Outlook & Weather

Market attention is now firmly on the 2026 Turkish crop. Early indications from the Black Sea region are broadly positive: current weather is described as ideal for pollination and early nut development, with seasonally cool temperatures supporting tree health. Short‑term weather forecasts for the coastal Black Sea belt point to mild early‑June conditions with sufficient moisture and no immediate heat or frost threats, consistent with favourable vegetative growth.

However, pest pressure is a growing concern. The brown marmorated stink bug, already responsible for substantial losses in prior years, continues to spread in key producing provinces. Combined with the evidence of hidden damage in stored nuts, this raises the risk of quality downgrades and higher defect rates if control measures prove insufficient. Beyond Turkey, Chile is rapidly consolidating its position as a major hazelnut origin, with exports and planted area expanding and recent reports highlighting record hazelnut export values and strong first‑quarter shipments. This alternative Southern Hemisphere supply is increasingly important for global buyers seeking geographic diversification.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

For the coming weeks, the Turkish hazelnut market is expected to remain volatile and heterogeneous. Spot raw material in Turkey is likely to trade broadly within the indicated 250–300 TRY/kg band, with limited farmer selling on dips and ongoing liquidation of speculative positions. Premium large kernels should stay comparatively firm, while small calibers, roasted fractions and paste remain under the heaviest price pressure until stocks are further reduced or demand improves after summer.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–8 Weeks)

• Industrial buyers (chocolate, spreads, bakery): Consider gradually extending coverage for premium natural kernels (11–13 mm and larger) for late 2026, as current levels appear close to a structural floor given quality and inflation pressures.
• Users of paste and small calibers: Maintain a patient, short‑term buying strategy; oversupply and weak demand suggest further spot opportunities, especially in roasted meal and small diced fractions.
• Traders & shellers: Be cautious with low‑grade inventory accumulation; hidden damage and faster quality decay raise the risk of discounts and claims. Focus on sourcing verifiably sound, large‑kernel lots even at a premium.
• Risk management: Monitor TMO policy signals, export flows and pest reports closely; a combination of firm support prices and renewed large‑scale buying could mark a definitive bottom in premium segments.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, Trend)

• DDP Central Europe – premium raw kernels 11–13 mm: Around 7.9–8.1 EUR/kg; bias: sideways to slightly firmer on limited availability and farmer price resistance.
• DDP Central Europe – roasted small kernels & paste: Roasted 2–4 mm near 7.6 EUR/kg, paste around 5.8 EUR/kg; bias: slightly softer amid persistent oversupply.
• FOB Istanbul – natural kernels 11–13 mm: Around 7.3–7.4 EUR/kg; bias: range-bound, with speculative liquidation meeting a firm farmer floor.