Turkish Raisin Prices Ease but Remain Competitive Versus Global Origins

Turkish raisin prices are edging slightly lower, with conventional sultana FOB values down around 3–12% versus early May, while export competitiveness into Europe remains solid. Softer domestic demand, stable global availability and benign short‑term weather in Malatya keep the market offered, though a tighter 2025/26 Turkish supply balance may limit further downside. The current market is characterised by modest price corrections in key Turkish sultana grades following a firm first quarter, while rival origins such as India and China show mostly steady to slightly firmer indications. Short‑term weather in Malatya is seasonally mild with scattered showers, not threatening vineyards or drying conditions over the next three days, so nearby supply risks look low.

Prices

All prices approximate, converted to EUR using 1 EUR ≈ 35 TRY where needed; focus is on export parity, not domestic retail.

Supply & Demand

Latest global balance estimates from the international nut and dried fruit industry show world raisin production easing in 2025/26 to about 1.16 million tonnes, down from roughly 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25, with ending stocks also drawing modestly. Türkiye’s dried grape output is projected around 165,000 tonnes for 2025/26, a notable drop from more than 226,000 tonnes the season before, implying tighter exportable surplus despite sizeable carry‑in stocks.

A recent trade study confirms that Türkiye retains a strong competitive advantage in raisin exports to the EU, with market share gains driven both by growing EU demand and sustained price competitiveness. This structural strength helps underpin export bids even while spot prices in Malatya adjust lower to reflect calmer Q2 demand.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: TR)

For Malatya, the 3‑day outlook (14–16 May) shows mild spring conditions: highs between 18–23°C, lows near 8–12°C, with hazy sun and only scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms. These conditions are broadly neutral for vineyards at this stage and do not present a near‑term threat to raisin‑grape development or drying capacity.

More broadly, Turkey has seen increased rainfall in parts of 2026 compared to a dry 2025, but still near or slightly below historical averages in many regions. For sultana grapes, the key producing belt in the Aegean has not reported major weather shocks in the past weeks, so market attention remains focused on macro demand and currency rather than weather risk.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Global supply drawdown: The shift from a high‑stock 2024/25 season toward tighter 2025/26 fundamentals provides a medium‑term floor for prices, even if short‑term spot values ease.
• Export resilience: Recent analysis of Turkey’s raisin exports to the EU underscores stable competitiveness and a positive market‑share effect, suggesting exporters can sustain flows without aggressive discounting.
• Domestic food supply stance: Turkey’s grain agency (TMO) has publicly emphasised that there are no systemic food supply issues, signalling no imminent state‑driven intervention in dried fruit markets.
• Overall dried fruit trade: Broader fruit and vegetable exports from the Aegean region increased strongly in Q1 2026, hinting at robust logistical performance and continued international demand for Turkish horticultural exports, including raisins.

3‑Day Price Direction (Key Hubs, EUR)

• Malatya FOB (TR sultanas types 8–10): With mild weather and adequate stocks, prices are expected to trade sideways to slightly softer over the next three days, within roughly ±1–2% of current levels, as buyers test the lower end of the recent range.
• EU warehouses (NL/DE FCA Turkish & Chinese sultanas): Spot offers should remain broadly stable; existing inventory and stable Chinese parity keep a lid on upside, while modest Turkish easing narrows but does not eliminate the origin–EU spread.
• India FOB (New Delhi raisins): Local firmness and domestic demand suggest a steady to marginally firmer tone, but recent Turkish softness limits exporters’ ability to raise USD/EUR offers meaningfully.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (EU importers, packers): Use the current dip in Turkish sultana prices to cover near‑term needs, focusing on standard type‑9 grades where the correction has been steepest. Consider staggered purchases in case global tightening later in 2025/26 lifts the forward curve.
• Turkish exporters: Defend margins by differentiating on quality and service rather than deeper price cuts; monitor Chinese FCA offers closely as a cap for EU‑delivered levels. Lock in currency when EUR/TRY is favourable to stabilise export parity.
• Industry users (bakery, cereal, snacks): This is an opportunistic window to lengthen coverage modestly (e.g., through end‑Q3) but avoid over‑committing far into 2026 until clearer signals emerge on next season’s Aegean crop size.