Turkish Raisin Prices Edge Mixed as New Sultana Crop Flows to Market

Turkish raisin prices are broadly holding a sideways pattern in euro terms, with only marginal mixed moves across key Malatya sultana grades, as the 2026/27 crop enters the export pipeline and buyers wait for clearer policy signals. Hot, dry weather in Malatya and the wider Aegean belt is supporting drying and quality, while the weaker lira and a recently confirmed 80 TL/kg advance price from TARIS keep producer sentiment cautious but not panicked. The new-season supply build is meeting still-measured demand from European and regional buyers, who are focusing on nearby cover rather than aggressively extending positions. Export offers from Turkey remain clustered around the lower end of recent EU import price bands for sultanas, maintaining Turkey’s competitiveness but limiting upside in the short term. With TMO yet to announce an intervention price and harvest weather currently benign, the market is poised for a period of range-bound trading rather than a sharp break in either direction.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR/kg using prevailing early-September FX levels. Latest quotes (09 September 2026):

These indications sit well within the broadly stable band of around EUR 2.15–2.40/kg reported for Turkish FOB sultanas type 8–10, confirming that the new crop’s arrival has not yet triggered a decisive repricing. EU import data for dried sultanas show a longer‑term weighted average near EUR 2.2–2.3/kg, placing current Turkish offers slightly above the multi‑year mean but still competitive.

Supply & Demand

New-season Turkish sultana supply is now flowing from the Aegean heartland into processing and export channels, after a delayed but ultimately hot and dry harvest helped drying and colour. TARIS has set an 80 TL/kg advance purchase price for 2026/27, lower than many growers had hoped, with physical buying starting around 10 September. This anchor reduces upside pressure on farmgate prices, even as processors seek to replenish thin carry‑in stocks from last season’s small crop.

On the demand side, Turkey remains the EU’s dominant sultana supplier, accounting for roughly one‑third of extra‑EU import value with an average import price of about EUR 2.24/kg over recent years. Latest trade data indicate a notable decline in Turkey’s imports of foreign raisins over the past twelve months, signalling greater reliance on domestic production and reinforcing Turkey’s role primarily as a net exporter. European buyers are currently cautious, replacing nearby cover as the new crop becomes available but largely avoiding aggressive forward purchases until TMO’s intervention price is known.

Fundamentals & Policy

Government policy remains a key swing factor. In previous seasons, TMO has intervened with public purchases and set benchmark prices to stabilise the seedless raisin market. As of 10 September 2026, TMO has not yet announced a new intervention price for seedless raisins, even while it continues payment programmes in other crops such as grains and poppy capsules. This vacuum leaves TARIS’s 80 TL/kg advance as the main reference and contributes to the current wait‑and‑see stance among traders.

Domestically, producer margins are squeezed across several export crops in Malatya and surrounding regions, with recent coverage highlighting weaker prices for dried apricots versus last year. That environment encourages growers to push for higher raisin prices, but the combination of healthy new‑season availability, cautious external demand and a soft lira limits their bargaining power for now.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Malatya, TR)

The short‑term weather outlook for Malatya (10–12 September) is very favourable for drying: clear skies, plenty of sun and daytime highs around 31–32°C, with overnight lows of 14–16°C. Low rain risk and warm, ventilated conditions support rapid and uniform drying, reducing quality risks such as mold or darkening. This underpins expectations for good colour and soundness across current drying lots, indirectly reinforcing the ceiling on prices in the immediate term.

With no major weather threats on the 3‑day horizon, logistical and policy factors – rather than climate – are likely to dominate short‑term price direction for Turkish raisins.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (0–2 weeks): Sideways to slightly soft for conventional Turkish sultanas in EUR, as TARIS’s relatively low 80 TL/kg base and benign weather meet cautious but adequate export demand.
• Exporters in Turkey: Consider locking in near‑term sales around current EUR levels, especially for type 9–10, before any potential TMO intervention or currency moves shift the pricing floor.
• Importers in EU: Use the current stable band near EUR 2.15–2.35/kg to cover Q4 needs selectively, but avoid over‑buying until TMO’s price signal and early export pace clarify whether downside from the low TL base will really flow through to export offers.
• Organic segment: With organic type 9 FOB Malatya holding around EUR 3.10/kg and showing no recent change, end‑users with fixed-price contracts may wish to advance coverage before any spillover from conventional policy support tightens this premium niche.

3-Day Price Indication (Malatya-centric)

• TR sultanas, type 9, RTU, CIF Malatya-linked exports: Expected stable around ≈2.20 EUR/kg over the next three days, with minimal room for either sharp gains or losses.
• TR sultanas, type 8–10, FOB Malatya: Likely to trade in a narrow ≈2.10–2.35 EUR/kg band short term, with a slight downward bias on conventional grades if sellers react quickly to the 80 TL/kg base and seek volume.
• TR organic sultanas, type 9, FOB: Premium segment expected to remain firm near ≈3.10 EUR/kg, supported by limited certified supply and currently stable demand.