UGA Lowers 2024 Crop Estimate of Grains and Oilseeds

Lower Harvest Projection

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has revised its forecast for the 2024 harvest, lowering it by 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) to a total of 74.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds. This adjustment reflects a decrease from the previous year’s harvest of 82.8 MMT. The current forecast is based on average weather conditions over the last five years, with potential changes depending on spring and summer weather patterns.

Factors Influencing the Decline

The anticipated decline in the 2024 harvest is attributed to two main factors: a reduction in the area under cultivation, particularly for grains, due to unfavorable global price conditions and relatively high export logistics costs, and dry conditions experienced in May in several regions in the East and South of Ukraine.

Export Projections

UGA projects that exports for the 2024/2025 season will be 43.5 million tonnes, down from the 53.2 million tonnes expected by the end of the current season. This significant drop is a result of the reduced harvest and other market conditions.

Detailed Crop Estimates

• Wheat: The wheat crop is forecasted at 19.1 MMT, down 900,000 tonnes from the previous estimate and lower than the 22 MMT harvested in 2023. Wheat exports for the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY) are expected to be around 13 MMT, considering carryover stocks of approximately 2.4 MMT.
• Barley: The barley crop is projected at 4.6 MMT, down from 5.8 MMT in 2023. Potential barley exports for 2024/2025 MY are estimated at 2 MMT, compared to 2.5 MMT forecasted for the current season.
• Corn: Expectations for the corn crop are deteriorating due to a possible reduction in the corn area and dryness in some regions. The UGA estimates the corn crop at 25.5 MMT, 800,000 tonnes less than the previous estimate and 4.1 MMT less than last year’s 29.6 MMT. Potential corn exports could be around 20.5 MMT, with exports expected to reach 26 MMT this season.
• Sunflower: The sunflower crop is expected to be 13.7 MMT, slightly down from 14.2 MMT in 2023. Potential sunflower exports could reach up to 250,000 tonnes, while domestic oil crushing is projected to be nearly 13.6 MMT, compared to 13.5 MMT this season.
• Rapeseed: The rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.3 MMT, down from 4.5 MMT in 2023. Exports for 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 MMT, compared to 3.7 MMT in the current season.
• Soybean: The soybean harvest is expected to increase to 5.5 MMT from 4.9 MMT in 2023. Potential soybean exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach 4 MMT, up from 3.3 MMT this season.

The reduced crop forecast and export projections highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian farmers due to adverse weather conditions and global market fluctuations. It will be crucial to monitor how these factors evolve and impact the agricultural sector in the coming months.

Source:UGA