Ukraine’s Export Duty Proposal Shakes Up the European Rapeseed Market

The European rapeseed (rape) market finds itself at a crucial crossroads as the Ukrainian government proposes a significant 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, potentially redrawing trade flows and price dynamics as peak export season approaches. With Ukraine situated as one of the world’s top rapeseed exporters, any policy shift can ripple through EU supply chains and impact international price benchmarks. The aim of the new “soybean and rapeseed” amendment—discussed in the Verkhovna Rada Tax Committee—targets raw commodity traders instead of farmers, pushing for more domestic processing and higher local tax revenues. This comes at a time when Ukraine has expanded processing capacity notably since 2022, yet debates continue over whether this policy will empower small and mid-sized growers or simply tilt the market toward large processors and restrict competition.

Skeptics warn that mirroring previous policies, such as the earlier “soybean amendment,” could cut off small traders and distort fair market access. Market volatility is mounting as exporters, processors, and EU buyers weigh their next steps, especially with the new crop and shifting logistics. At the same time, European rapeseed prices remain steady, but the looming regulatory change is set to test the resilience of the current supply-demand equilibrium, particularly affecting flows from Odesa and Kyiv hubs. Meanwhile, weather conditions across key growing regions in both the EU and Ukraine remain generally favorable for yield prospects, setting the stage for a complex market in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	City	Delivery Terms	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Date	Sentiment
France	—	—	Paris	FOB	0.54	0%	2025-06-12	Stable
Ukraine	42% min oil	98%	Kyiv	FCA	0.49	+4.3%	2025-06-12	Firming
Ukraine	42% min oil	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.51	+4.1%	2025-06-12	Firming

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Policy Uncertainty: Upcoming Ukrainian export duty proposal threatens to tighten supplies to EU markets during shelling season (July-August) when Ukrainian exports typically peak.
• Processing Expansion: Ukrainian processing capacity increased by 3 million tonnes since 2022, with a further 3 million in development, which could divert raw seed supply away from exports if the policy is ratified.
• EU Domestic Crop: Major EU producers (France, Germany, Poland) report generally favorable crop conditions, potentially mitigating upward pressure on prices if Ukrainian exports slow.

📊 Fundamentals

• Drivers: Ukrainian policy debate, EU import reliance, speculative interest due to volatile regulatory conditions, and mixed harvest projections in the Black Sea region.
• USDA & Forecasts: USDA projects slight decreases in global rapeseed stocks, but overall balance remains stable as Australia and Canada maintain robust export campaigns.
• Speculative Positioning: Fund activity on Euronext remains neutral, but a shift toward long positions is possible if Ukrainian restrictions are confirmed.

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Export Share (%)
EU	19.1	3.7	18
Ukraine	4.0	0.7	85
Canada	18.8	1.4	82
Australia	6.6	0.7	88

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Black Sea: Widespread beneficial rains and moderate temperatures. Good soil moisture supports the filling crop, lower risk of heat stress through mid-June.
• EU (France, Germany): Mild conditions, periodic showers, no extended heatwaves forecasted.
• Canada & Australia: Slight dryness in some canola zones, but not yet at critical stages for 2024/25 development.

Overall, weather is not expected to constrain yields in the immediate 3-4 weeks barring sudden extremes.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukrainian legislative developments closely—the export duty could be a game-changer for mid-summer contracts.
• Consider near-term procurement in the EU if reliant on Ukrainian origin to hedge against potential regulatory-driven supply shrinkage.
• Opportunities may arise for European processors and crushers if supply tightens—watch local basis adjustments.
• Beware of volatility: speculative trading may increase as implementation details of Ukraine’s policy emerge.
• Small traders should reassess logistic costs and routes ahead of possible duty imposition.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Bias
Paris (FR)	0.54	0.53 – 0.55	Neutral to Slightly Firm
Kyiv (UA)	0.49	0.48 – 0.51	Firming
Odesa (UA)	0.51	0.50 – 0.52	Firming