Ukrainian Grain Exports Surpass 43 Million Tonnes in 2023/24 Marketing Year

USDA Downgrades Corn Stock Forecast, Leading to Increased Quotations

Mintec Global
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USDA Report Impact on Corn Market

The recent release of the May supply and demand report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has significantly influenced the corn market. The adjustments made to the forecast of corn stocks for both the current and upcoming seasons have led to notable changes in market dynamics, resulting in increased quotations.

Changes in Corn Balance Sheet

The alterations in the corn balance sheet for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) include a reduction in forecasts for world production, exports, and stocks, coupled with an increase in consumption estimates. Notably, the forecast for the 2023/24 fiscal year (FY) corn harvest in major producing countries like Brazil and Argentina has also been lowered, contributing to market pressures. However, adjustments in harvest estimates for other countries like the USA, Ukraine, and the EU have been observed.

Market Response and Price Trends

Following the USDA report, corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange experienced a notable increase, with July futures rising by 2.9% and December futures by 2.5%. These gains reflect the market’s response to the revised balance sheet and the implications for supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, in Ukraine, corn prices are on the rise in line with global trends, potentially signaling an expansion in sowing areas due to reduced stocks.

The USDA’s downward revision of corn stock forecasts has had a significant impact on the market, leading to increased quotations. Changes in the balance sheet, including reduced production and export estimates, have influenced market sentiment and price trends. Market participants should closely monitor factors such as planting progress, weather conditions, and trade dynamics, as they could affect future price movements in the corn market.