UZA Experts Lower Forecasts for Ukraine’s Grain and Oil Crop Production

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has reduced its forecast for the production of grain and oil crops in Ukraine by 1.5 million tons to 74.6 million tons, down from the 82.8 million tons harvested in the previous season.

Current Forecasts and Weather Impact

The updated estimates are based on an analysis of weather conditions over the last five years. However, the UZA notes that sudden changes in weather during the spring or summer could necessitate further adjustments to these figures. The anticipated decrease in the upcoming season’s harvest is attributed to a reduction in the sown area, particularly for grain crops due to low global prices, high logistics costs, and dry weather conditions in May affecting regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Impact on Exports

Should the new forecast materialize, the export of grain and oil crops for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is expected to drop to 43.5 million tons from 53.2 million tons in the 2023/24 season.

Detailed Crop Forecasts

• Wheat: The forecast for wheat production in 2024 has been reduced by 900,000 tons to 19.1 million tons. Correspondingly, wheat exports are projected to decline to 13 million tons.
• Barley: The barley production forecast has been lowered to 4.6 million tons, with exports expected to reach 2 million tons.
• Corn: Corn production is now expected to be 25.5 million tons, down by 800,000 tons. This decrease is mainly due to reduced planting acreage and dry weather. Corn exports are projected at 20.5 million tons.
• Sunflower: Sunflower production in 2024 is forecasted at 13.7 million tons, with exports up to 250,000 tons and processing almost 13.6 million tons.
• Rapeseed: The rapeseed harvest is projected to be 4.3 million tons, with exports reaching 3.4 million tons.
• Soybeans: The soybean harvest is expected to be 5.5 million tons, with exports projected at 4 million tons.

Commentary

The reduction in Ukraine’s production forecasts highlights the significant impact of weather conditions and economic factors on agricultural output. As global market dynamics and climate patterns continue to evolve, it becomes increasingly crucial for stakeholders to remain adaptable.

For Ukraine,  these adjustments emphasize the need for strategic planning and investment in resilient agricultural practices. Monitoring weather developments and market trends will be essential for mitigating risks and maximizing opportunities in the coming seasons.