Uzbek Raisin Exports Edge Higher as Global Buyers Diversify Origins

Uzbekistan’s raisin exports continued to grow modestly in the first half of 2026, with slightly higher volumes and a broadening customer base underpinning a mostly stable global price environment. Export flows remain heavily driven by strong regional demand in Central Asia and Russia, while rising shipments to China, Europe and South America support diversification and reduce dependence on any single buyer.

Prices

Spot indications from key trading hubs point to a broadly stable to slightly softer raisin market in mid-August 2026. Indian FOB offers from New Delhi currently range around EUR 1.90–2.55/kg for standard edible grades, while bird feed material trades closer to EUR 0.98–1.00/kg equivalent. European FCA offers in the Netherlands cluster near EUR 2.05–2.65/kg for mainstream sultanas and flame types, with Turkish origin at the upper end around EUR 2.70–2.75/kg on a converted basis.

Over the past three to four weeks, most quotations show only marginal adjustments, often within a EUR 0.03–0.05/kg band, suggesting that buyers and sellers are largely balanced for nearby positions. Slight easing in some Chinese and African feed-grade offers contrasts with firmer premiums for higher-quality, ready-to-use (RTU) and organic Turkish sultanas. Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan’s average H1 2026 export value of about USD 1,258/tonne (roughly EUR 1,15–1,20/kg FOB, depending on FX) positions the country as a competitive mid-range supplier rather than a high-priced niche origin.

Supply & Demand

Uzbekistan exported 47,700 tonnes of raisins in the first six months of 2026, valued at USD 60 million, up by 704.5 tonnes or around 1.5% year-on-year. This confirms the country’s role as a significant player in the global dried-grape sector, following 2024 exports of 53,000 tonnes that placed it seventh worldwide by volume. The modest increase in shipments, despite generally adequate global supply, highlights persistent demand for Uzbekistan’s product mix and logistical advantages into nearby markets.

Regional trade continues to dominate flows: Kazakhstan alone took 15,200 tonnes, accounting for nearly 32% of total exports. China followed with 6,000 tonnes, Russia with 5,600 tonnes and Turkey with 3,900 tonnes, while Iran received 1,700 tonnes. Additional sizeable markets include Ukraine (1,600 tonnes), Azerbaijan (1,400 tonnes), Georgia (1,200 tonnes), the UAE (1,100 tonnes), Germany (1,000 tonnes) and Brazil (994 tonnes). Sales into a total of 57 destinations underline diversified demand and help buffer exporters against localized shocks in any single region.

On the global side, industry balance sheets for 2025/26 indicate comfortable but not excessive stocks among key producers such as Türkiye, Iran, India, the United States, China and South Africa. Earlier crop assessments pointed to some weather and disease issues in parts of the Mediterranean and Asia, but overall availability remains ample, keeping a lid on aggressive price rallies. In this environment, Uzbekistan’s combination of established grape acreage, favourable drying conditions and proximity to large consuming neighbours positions the country to maintain export momentum without needing deep price discounting.

Fundamentals & Trade Structure

Fundamentally, Uzbekistan leverages a well-developed grape sector and natural sun-drying conditions to produce competitively priced raisins with relatively low post-harvest costs. The H1 2026 export value of around USD 1,258/tonne points to a focus on mainstream grades rather than highly specialized premium segments. Still, increasing sales into quality-sensitive markets such as Germany, the UAE and Brazil indicate that processors are meeting key food-safety and quality requirements.

The breadth of destinations – 57 in total – is a critical structural strength. High exposure to Kazakhstan and Russia reflects geographic and logistical advantages, but the growing role of China, Middle Eastern buyers and European importers enhances resilience. Historical data confirming Uzbekistan’s place among the top ten global raisin exporters suggests that exporters and packers have sufficient scale to serve both bulk and branded channels. Maintaining consistent quality standards, timely documentation and reliable logistics will be decisive in defending market share against competitive origins such as Türkiye, Iran, India and China.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

With only modest volume growth and no clear sign of supply shortages, the near-term outlook for raisin prices is broadly sideways with a slight upward bias in higher-grade segments. Stable export flows from Uzbekistan into its main regional outlets, coupled with diversified sales into Asia, Europe and South America, should keep pipeline stocks adequate through the remainder of 2026, barring major weather shocks in competing origins.

Weather risks in major grape-producing regions remain a watchpoint, particularly during late-summer and early-autumn harvest windows in the Northern Hemisphere. Adverse conditions affecting drying or disease pressure could tighten availability and firm prices, especially for premium sultanas and RTU material. For now, however, reported trade flows and current offers suggest a well-supplied global market where buyers can continue to negotiate selectively without the urgency of a sharply rising market.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers in Central Asia, Russia and China: Use the current balanced market to secure medium-term contracts with Uzbek suppliers at today’s mid-range price levels, prioritising reliable shippers with proven quality compliance.
• European importers: Consider diversifying away from single-origin exposure by adding Uzbek volumes to blends, especially for bakery and cereal applications where competitive pricing can improve margins.
• Uzbek exporters: Maintain focus on quality control and certification to deepen penetration in higher-value markets such as the EU and the Gulf, while preserving strong relationships with core buyers in Kazakhstan and Russia.

3-Day Indicative Price Outlook (EUR)

Given the current balance of supply and demand, significant price moves over the next few days appear unlikely; most adjustments should remain within a narrow range driven by freight, FX and short-term buying interest rather than fundamental shocks.