Hanoi: Vietnam’s ambitious aspiration to mirror last year’s coffee export turnover of over USD 4 billion faces formidable challenges as 2023 unfolds. Despite a propitious landscape at the start of the year, the intricacies of supply, demand, and external factors may interplay to reshape the year-end outcomes.Drawing from a backdrop where adverse meteorological patterns are anticipated to precipitate a 10-15% decrease in coffee output, the coffee sector’s trajectory is nonetheless not linear. An evident silver lining is the demand dynamics. With demand significantly superseding supply, the final quarter could potentially witness an uptick in coffee exports, offering a respite from the production woes.
Preliminary projections from Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in early September were optimistic. The forecast estimated an export quantum of approximately 1,72 million tonnes for the year, translating to a revenue of $4,2 billion. A retrospective glance at 2022 showcases Vietnam’s triumphant achievement, marking its maiden year of breaching the $4 billion threshold in coffee export turnover.
However, echoing sentiments of caution, the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) recently articulated concerns. Drawing from a two-year data, MXV underscores the unpredictability tethered to maintaining this high export echelon. The ephemeral nature of such milestones, especially in a volatile market, necessitates a balanced perspective. A pivotal factor underpinning the prospective turnover exceeding $4 billion in 2023 hinges on the rising prices, an inevitable aftermath of a supply chasm.
Navigating through the penultimate quarter, challenges manifest from a dual-front: supply chain intricacies and evolving demand matrices. As of the previous month’s culmination, a metric evaluation indicates Vietnam’s average coffee export price stabilizing at USD 3,151 per tonne. This represents a robust 29.6% year-on-year augmentation, benchmarked against the same month in the previous year.
Yet, juxtaposing this with volume dynamics paints a more nuanced picture. Dissecting the statistical compilation from the General Department of Customs offers insights. The year’s initial three quarters recorded coffee exports surpassing 1.25 million tonnes, amassing a value north of USD 3.1 billion. A comparative analysis with the antecedent year reveals an 8.3% volumetric contraction. However, an incremental value uptick of 0.7% offers a counter-narrative.
Categorical export variations further elucidate the trend. While the year witnessed a burgeoning trajectory for Excelsa and processed coffee exports, traditional stalwarts like Robusta and Arabica delineated a downturn, vis-à-vis 2022.
In summation, as the calendar pages of 2023 are briskly turned, Vietnam’s coffee export terrain remains in flux. Ambitions are counterbalanced by pragmatic challenges, crafting a storyline that will inevitably unfurl as the year concludes. The sector, imbued with resilience and adaptability, awaits to see if history will repeat its success, or if new lessons will be scripted.