Volatile Garlic Market Sees Significant Ups & Downs in Price

Mintec Global
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Overview of Current Market Conditions

Garlic prices have seen a notable decrease, dropping by $0,12 to $0,18 per kg, and are anticipated to decline further by $0,18 in the near future. Despite this fall, prices remain high compared to the beginning of the season, causing hesitation among buyers and stockists.

In Unjha Mandi, current garlic prices range from $0,78 to $1,68 per kg, significantly lower than last year’s $1,44 to $2,10. In Merta and Nagaur Mandis of Rajasthan, prices have adjusted to $0,72 to $1,08 per kg from last year’s $1,44 to $1,80.

Market Dynamics and Future Projections

Approximately 40,000 bags of garlic are arriving daily in Unjha, with 1,500 to 2,000 bags in Merta and Nagaur. High production levels are expected to keep prices declining. If demand for garlic seeds picks up in May-June, prices might increase by $2,4 to $3,6 per kg.

Impact of Weather and Seasonal Demand

The demand for garlic has decreased due to the summer season and high initial prices. If rainfall reduces, consumption may decline further, potentially lowering prices by an additional $0,12 to $0,18 per kg.

Local Quality and Income

In Madhya Pradesh, the daily arrival of garlic is between 125,000 to 150,000 bags, with a consistent supply expected through May. The garlic crop in Uttar Pradesh is more airy and generally of lower quality, catering mainly to local preferences in Bihar and Bengal.

Observations on Export and Domestic Challenges

Currently, there is little to no export demand for garlic due to high prices. If prices decrease, some export trade is expected to resume. The market is likely to experience more dynamic changes if prices adjust downward, potentially improving international trade opportunities.

The export price of garlic has halved from the previous year, now ranging from $0,82 to $0,84 per kg.

This overview captures the complexity and variability of the garlic market in India, highlighting the impact of regional production, market demand, and global trade conditions on pricing and distribution strategies.