Wheat prices on world exchanges are rising on the back of successful attacks by Ukrainian drones in the area of the Kerch Bridge and the main Russian export port of Novorossiysk, which could lead to a reduction in the supply of Russian grain and oil to the world market. In addition, Ukraine’s declaration of Russian ports as a zone of military threat will increase freight costs and reduce the number of shipowners willing to call at these ports, as some ships have previously refused to call at Ukrainian ports according to Graintrade.
During the week, world wheat prices fell by 8.5-13.5%, and Friday’s rise had little impact on the markets. After the close, wheat prices continued to rise on electronic togas, so it is likely that prices will rise again today.
On Friday, September futures rose:
- by 0.9% to $232.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 0.9% to $243.5/t – for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
- by 1.4% to €235.25/t or $258.8/t – for wheat on Euronext Paris.
Experts at Refinitiv Commodities Research have lowered their forecast for EU soft wheat production in the 2023/24 MR by 2.3m tonnes to 128m tonnes, and for durum by 0.5m tonnes to 7.6m tonnes, compared with previous estimates, which will also support prices.
Ukraine has insured all ships importing or exporting goods through Danube ports, Ukrainian Prime Minister D. Shmyhal told the conference of Ukrainian ambassadors. This could increase the number of ships ready to enter the Danube ports.
During the week, Ukraine’s grain exports fell by 30%. In 2023/24 MR, as of August 4, Ukraine exported 880,000 tonnes of wheat (in particular, 56,000 tonnes in August), compared to 444 (83) thousand tonnes last year.
Ukrainian farmers are speeding up the harvest, and as of August 1, 12.5 million tonnes of wheat had been threshed from 2.698 million hectares, or 65% of the area, with a yield of 4.64 tonnes/ha, significantly higher than last year. This is because the statistics do not include the occupied southern regions, where productivity has always been lower.
Tomorrow, the Egyptian GASC will hold a wheat procurement tender, which will be a new indicator of world price dynamics.
Source: Graintrade
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