📜 Wheat Prices Rebound but Face Export Challenges – Russian Tariffs & Weather Risks in Focus 📜

After a period of losses, wheat prices staged a comeback, though challenges remain. Euronext and CBOT both saw gains, driven by shifting market dynamics. Russia’s latest export tax hike is adding uncertainty, while weather conditions vary across key growing regions. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat exports are struggling, raising concerns about demand. Will the recent price recovery hold, or is another dip ahead?

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€223.75/t	+€2.00	+0.9%
Euronext September 2025	€224.75/t	+€2.00	+0.9%
CBOT May 2025	562.50 ct/bu (€206/t)	+11.25 ct	+2.0%
CBOT July 2025	577.25 ct/bu (€211/t)	+4.00 ct	+0.7%

📌 CBOT wheat rebounded, but weak export demand continues to limit upside potential.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 Russian Export Tariff Increase Supports Prices

📊 Russia raised its wheat export tariff by 12.2% (effective March 12), reaching 2,444.4 RUB/t.

• This tax is calculated based on a reference price of $241.9/t.
• Despite this, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export prices fell by $1 to $247/t.
• Since 2021, Russia has used a flexible export tax system, redirecting revenues as subsidies for domestic farmers.

📌 The higher tariff could reduce Russian wheat exports, providing potential price support.

🔹 📉 U.S. Export Inspections Decline Significantly

📊 USDA weekly export inspections (week ending March 6):

• Total wheat shipments: 376,000 tons, a 44.65% drop from the previous week.
• Shipments are now less than half of the same period last year.

📌 Despite price increases, weak U.S. export performance remains a concern for CBOT wheat.

🔹 🌡️ Global Weather Conditions – Mixed Signals

📊 Weather remains a critical factor in wheat production, with regional variations:

• North America: Heavy rainfall in the Midwest and Great Plains has improved soil moisture and winter wheat growth.
• Europe: Heavy rains in Spain caused flooding, while Eastern Europe continues to struggle with dry conditions.
• Ukraine: Warmer temperatures are supporting winter crop recovery, but low soil moisture could impact spring growth.
• Russia: The risk of spring drought remains high, despite February snow improving soil moisture.

📌 Mixed global weather conditions create uncertainty for the upcoming harvest season.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 12 – March 14, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📅 Contract	🔮 Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€222 – €227/t
Euronext September 2025	€224 – €229/t
CBOT May 2025	560 – 570 ct/bu (€205 – €209/t)

📌 If U.S. export figures continue to decline, further downside pressure is possible. Russian export tariffs could provide some price support.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Improving soil moisture and moderate temperatures.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures expected.
• 🌧️ Rainfall improving soil moisture but dryness remains a concern in some regions.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: Winter wheat is in stable condition, but moisture reserves remain low.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Stable temperatures with no frost risks.
• 🌧️ Below-average precipitation remains a concern for spring planting.

📌 The Black Sea region remains a key market factor, with potential impacts on global supply.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📅 Season	🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t)	📉 Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

🌍 Country	📅 2023/24 (Mio. t)	📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	📉 Change
🇦🇺 Australia	29.0	34.1	+17.6 %
🇺🇸 USA	385	384	-0.3 %
🇷🇺 Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
🇪🇺 EU	126	128	+1.6 %

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ CBOT wheat rebounded despite weak export figures.
✅ Euronext wheat remains under pressure due to the strong euro.
✅ Russian wheat tariffs could tighten supply, supporting prices in the long run.
✅ Weather risks persist in key wheat-growing regions.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor Russian export policy and hold sales if prices stabilize.
🔹 Buyers: Consider purchasing opportunities, as European wheat becomes more competitive.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued volatility, with upcoming U.S. export data and Black Sea developments driving price swings.

📍 Markets remain sensitive to U.S. export trends, global supply adjustments, and trade negotiations.