Export Trends: A Mixed Bag
Wheat exports from Ukraine saw a complex start to the 2024/25 marketing year. While total exports reached 10,26 million tons, marking a 25% increase compared to last year’s 8,2 million tons, the numbers dipped significantly in January. Only 344.000 tons of wheat were exported in the first two weeks of January—a steep 63% decline compared to the same period in 2023.
The export slowdown highlights a tug-of-war between rising wheat prices and reduced global demand. Farmers, wary of price fluctuations, are holding back sales, intensifying competition between exporters and processors for high-quality grain.
Price Hikes Drive Market Pressure
Amid growing demand and a weakening hryvnia, export prices for wheat rose steadily. Food wheat now sells for USD 0,22 per kg (UAH 10.300-10.500 per ton), up by UAH 100-200 per ton, while feed wheat increased to USD 0,21 per kg (UAH 9.850-10.000 per ton). Delivery to Black Sea ports is factored into these prices.
Processors, especially mills seeking wheat with gluten levels above 23%, have also raised their buying prices to USD 0,22 per kg (UAH 10.200-10.500 per ton). Wheat with lower gluten content trades slightly lower, at USD 0,20-0,21 per kg (UAH 9.600-10.000 per ton).
Weather Woes and Export Forecasts
Concerns about poor rainfall in December and January—particularly in southeastern Ukraine—are keeping market participants cautious. Many fear that dry conditions could impact the upcoming season, limiting any significant price drops.
Global forecasts have also been adjusted. USDA experts recently cut their estimates for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 500.000 tons and Russia’s by 1 million tons due to reduced global consumption and high Black Sea wheat prices.
Global Wheat Futures: Mixed Signals
Wheat futures showed mixed trends this week. March soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago edged up by 0,2% to USD 0,20 per kg (USD 200,7 per ton). Durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City remained steady at USD 0,21 per kg (USD 206 per ton), while durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis dipped 0,7% to USD 0,22 per kg (USD 216,6 per ton).
Meanwhile, on Euronext Paris, wheat futures dropped by 1,2% to EUR 231,25 per ton (USD 0,24 per kg) after small gains earlier in the week.
Seasonal Shifts Ahead
As February and March bring a seasonal increase in wheat supplies, prices could face additional pressure. Increased sowing areas in the US and the EU are likely to add to this downward trend.
Conclusion: What’s Next for Farmers and Buyers?
For farmers, this is a moment to consider selling cautiously, as prices are likely to face downward pressure in the coming months. Buyers may want to monitor US weather conditions closely, as a new cold snap could disrupt supply chains and temporarily raise prices. Those purchasing wheat for processing should focus on high-gluten varieties now, as availability remains limited.
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