Raw Sugar Futures Rebound from One‑Month Lows as Supply Stays Comfortable

Raw sugar futures have bounced off recent one‑month lows, with the ICE #11 curve modestly firmer and a gently upward tilt into 2027–28, but the overall picture still reflects a comfortable global supply backdrop. The latest move looks more like a technical and macro‑driven correction than the start of a sustained bull run.

While nearby contracts regained ground on a weaker dollar and stronger energy prices, forward ICE #11 prices for 2026–28 continue to trade in a relatively tight, low‑to‑mid‑teens US‑cent/lb range, signalling that the market still discounts ample cane availability in Brazil and improving output elsewhere. For physical buyers, this combination of soft underlying fundamentals and renewed price volatility creates selective hedging opportunities along the curve, especially into 2026/27.

📈 Prices & Forward Curve

Based on April 14, 2026 ICE #11 settlement data, the raw sugar futures curve is modestly upward sloping, with nearby contracts rebounding but longer‑dated positions already pricing in slightly higher values:

Contract	Close (US‑ct/lb)	Change (d/d)	Approx. Price (EUR/kg)
May 2026	13.88	+0.20	≈ 0.29
Jul 2026	14.09	+0.21	≈ 0.30
Oct 2026	14.44	+0.18	≈ 0.30–0.31
Mar 2027	15.17	+0.16	≈ 0.33
Mar 2028	15.95	+0.14	≈ 0.35

In EUR terms, front‑month ICE #11 raw sugar is trading in the roughly 0.27–0.29 EUR/kg range, in line with recent external assessments of one‑month lows, while Brazilian refined ICUMSA 45 export offers (FOB São Paulo) are around 0.53 EUR/kg, slightly above last autumn’s levels. The latest daily move – about +1.4–1.5% in the May 2026 contract – reflects a rebound from earlier weakness rather than a structural tightening of the balance.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Macro Drivers

Fundamentally, the market continues to contend with a broadly comfortable global balance, led by strong Brazilian Center‑South cane and sugar production. Recent crop updates point to 2025/26 output above 40 million tonnes of sugar, with 2026/27 cane availability projected near 635 million tonnes under normal weather conditions – enough to keep raw sugar export flows robust barring major disruptions.

At the same time, Northern Hemisphere producers are stabilising after earlier weather setbacks. Forecasts for 2025/26 indicate higher production from India and Thailand versus the previous season, contributing to an 8+ million tonne year‑on‑year rise in global sugar output to around 189 million tonnes. However, India’s policy stance remains cautious: while some additional export volumes are being discussed for 2025/26, the government continues to balance sugar availability against its ethanol blending ambitions, which could intermittently tighten seaborne supply if domestic priorities prevail.

Near‑term price action is being strongly influenced by macro factors. The recent rally off six‑week lows has coincided with a weaker US dollar and a renewed rise in oil prices above USD 100/bbl, which improves the relative economics of ethanol and supports sugar through the energy complex. The sharp increase in open interest reported on April 14 signals fresh capital entering the market, with some funds likely rebuilding long positions after the early‑April washout.

🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook

Weather conditions in Brazil’s Center‑South, the key cane belt, are currently assessed as broadly favourable, supporting the outlook for another strong crushing season and high sugar mix in 2025/26 and 2026/27. Earlier‑season flooding episodes in parts of Brazil have not, so far, materially altered the aggregate production outlook, though they remain a localised risk for logistics and quality in affected micro‑regions.

In Asia, Thailand’s cane area recovery and improved yields underpin the projected rebound in output, though high fertiliser and input costs could restrain aggressive expansion. India’s 2025/26 crop is expected to be healthier than the drought‑hit 2023/24 season, but monsoon performance remains the key swing factor for both sugar and competing crops; any monsoon shortfall could quickly shift policy back toward tighter export controls.

📊 Fundamentals & Positioning

The current ICE #11 forward curve – rising from about 13.9 US‑ct/lb in May 2026 to around 16.0 US‑ct/lb by March 2029 – suggests that the market prices in only a gradual tightening over the medium term. The relatively small day‑to‑day gains across all listed maturities (+0.14 to +0.21 ct/lb on April 14) indicate a broad‑based adjustment rather than a squeeze in any specific delivery window.

External commentary highlights that the recent correction to one‑month (and in some cases six‑week) lows has pushed raw sugar toward valuation levels considered attractive for industrial buyers, especially when combined with dollar weakness. In the physical market, refined sugar export offers from Brazil have edged higher in EUR terms over recent months but remain historically competitive relative to European beet‑based supply and to prior high‑price phases of this cycle.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• End‑users (food & beverage, industrial): Consider scaling into medium‑term hedge coverage on 2026–27 needs while ICE #11 remains in the high‑13 to low‑14 US‑ct/lb band, using price dips toward 13.7–13.8 as entry points and keeping some flexibility for potential further macro‑driven weakness.
• Producers (Brazil, Asia): Current forward values into 2027–28, near 15.5–16.0 US‑ct/lb (≈0.34–0.35 EUR/kg), offer reasonable margins given strong crop prospects; layering in additional hedges on rallies, rather than at current rebounded levels, may optimise revenue capture while retaining upside to weather or policy shocks.
• Speculators: With fundamentals still leaning bearish but macro factors turning supportive, the market is vulnerable to range‑bound trading; strategies that monetise volatility – such as selling strangles around the 13.7–14.5 band in the front month – may be preferable to strong directional bets in the very short term.

Over the next three trading days, barring fresh macro surprises, ICE #11 raw sugar is likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer, with May 2026 contracts oscillating roughly between 13.7 and 14.3 US‑ct/lb (≈0.27–0.29 EUR/kg). In Europe, refined sugar prices should remain broadly stable in EUR terms, supported by the recent futures rebound and steady physical demand, while Brazilian FOB refined offers are expected to hold in the low‑to‑mid 0.50s EUR/kg range.