The global cranberry market is gearing up for its busiest harvest season as robust demand and shifting international trade flows drive firm pricing across key regions. The U.S. remains the world’s dominant producer, with Wisconsin’s late September-October harvest leading the charge, even as total U.S. output edges marginally below last year. Yet, demand for cranberries—especially dried forms—soars worldwide: the 2024/25 season anticipates a more than 10% jump in global dried cranberry consumption, with output gains from Canada and Chile offsetting the modest dip in America. Export activity is brisk: the EU expanded dried cranberry imports by 11.5% year-over-year in early 2025, propelled by Canada’s rapid production growth and sustained by resilient consumer demand, even at elevated prices.
Notably, new tariff reductions in India have ignited a surge in cranberry imports and made U.S. exports more competitive. Meanwhile, China and Germany solidify their roles as leading importers, reflecting a broader trend: rising health consciousness and growing applications in nutraceuticals and functional foods are expected to accelerate global market growth to nearly $4 billion by 2030. Market watchers anticipate continued tightness in supply versus demand heading into peak consumption, with industry experts urging early contract locking and diversified sourcing to secure volumes and manage risk as prices remain firm across markets. Industry advice: Plan purchases early and diversify sourcing, as trends point to ongoing supply constraints through 2026.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cranberries dried
whole, classic
FCA 4.35 €/kg
(from NL)
Cranberries dried
sliced, soft
FCA 3.93 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Delivery (EU) | Price (€/MT) | Prev. Price (€/MT) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cranberries dried (whole, classic) | US | Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | 4,350 | 4,350 | 2025-08-21 | Firm, stable |
| Cranberries dried (sliced, soft) | US | Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | 3,930 | 3,930 | 2025-08-21 | Firm, stable |
| US Avg. Price (Dec 2023) | US | — | 3,022 | — | 2023-12 | Rising |
| China Avg. Price (Dec 2023) | — | — | 3,362 | — | 2023-12 | Rising |
| Germany FCA Offer (Aug 2025) | — | — | 4,280 – 4,740 | — | 2025-08 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Global output: U.S. 2025 harvest: 5.3 million barrels, slightly down year-on-year (YoY).
- Canada: Production up 17% YoY, boosting presence in EU markets.
- Chile: Output up 8% YoY; exports shifting to meet Asian demand.
- EU imports: Up 11.5% in volume and 12% in value, Jan–Jul 2025, at 22,862 MT worth €83 million.
- India: Imports quadrupled over five years; new tariffs down to 10%, imports rising rapidly.
- Global exports 2023: $574.6 million; U.S. leads, followed by Canada and Netherlands. Top importers: Netherlands, China, Germany, Mexico, Poland.
- Dried cranberry market size: Forecast 2024/25: 202,551 MT (+10% YoY).
📊 Fundamentals & Drivers
- US harvest timing: September–October drives seasonal supply spike.
- Trade policy: Indian tariff cuts accelerate demand for U.S. product.
- Consumer trends: Rapid expansion in health/functional food market; increased demand for extracts and nutraceuticals.
- Speculative activity: Strong export bookings in Europe and Asia, supporting high forward prices.
- Price trends: Prices remain elevated; August 2025 European offers signal continued strength.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- United States (Wisconsin): Recent reports (Aug 2025) indicate a favorable late summer with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures—a positive for berry sizing and sugar accumulation coming into harvest.
- Canada (Quebec, BC): Above-average rainfall helped offset spring dryness, supporting the strong forecasted output.
- Chile: Mild winter and stable seasonal temperatures promoted good fruit set; some northern areas face irrigation constraints but overall impact limited.
- Short-term risk: Major weather disruptions are not expected before or during the start of U.S. harvest. North America’s main challenge remains the risk of a sudden September cold snap.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Output (MT) | YoY Change (%) | 2023 Export Value (US$ million) | Key Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Est. 350,000 (fresh & processed) | -2% | ~287 | EU, China, Mexico |
| Canada | Est. 115,000 | +17% | ~136 | EU, China |
| Chile | Est. 45,000 | +8% | ~50 | Asia, USA |
| Netherlands | n/a (import hub) | n/a | — | EU distribution |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📊 Secure contracts early: Forward prices indicate persistent tightness vs. demand through 2026.
- 🌎 Diversify suppliers: Canada’s growing crop offers alternative to U.S. in EU/Asia; consider Chile for Asia-Pacific.
- 📃 Capitalize on Indian tariffs: U.S. and EU exporters should target India, leveraging reduced duties.
- 📈 Monitor weather & logistics: Harvest risks are moderate but stay alert for unexpected cold or logistics disruptions.
- 📝 Explore added value: Invest in extracts and functional ingredients to capture growth in health and wellness markets.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Spot Price (€/MT) | 3-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|
| EU (Dordrecht FCA, whole dried) | 4,350 | Stable/Firm |
| EU (Dordrecht FCA, sliced dried) | 3,930 | Stable/Firm |
| Germany/Free Carrier | 4,280 – 4,740 | Firm |
| US (Avg., Dec 2023) | 3,022 | Stable—Upward Bias |
| China (Avg., Dec 2023) | 3,362 | Stable |
