The garlic market remains a focal point for both local and global agri-commodity traders as recent sessions in India’s Gondal APMC display a noteworthy increase in physical arrivals. Today, the arrivals surged to around 4,500–4,800 bags, up from the previous 4,000–4,500 bag tally. Despite this moderate influx, a stable price landscape signals evenly matched demand and supply, underpinning a calm market sentiment. The benchmark APMC yard recorded top-quality garlic trading between $42.00–$46.80 per quintal, medium grades between $31.70–$36.25 USD, and lower grades around $24.90–$30.60 USD. Fresh garlic FOB offers from Egypt stood at €1/kg, and organic garlic powder from India continued unchanged at €6.63/kg. This steadiness, even with the climb in arrivals, illustrates robust absorption capacity from buyers and highlights notable resilience.
With sentiment hovering neutral and no signals of imminent supply or demand shocks, stakeholders can anticipate price continuity in the short term. Accordingly, any dramatic price moves will hinge on changes in weather patterns, export demand, or unforeseen supply chain disruptions. For traders and processors, the current period could represent a phase for targeted procurement or calculated holding, as stability rules the market.
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📈 Prices
| Market | Product Type | Grade | Price Range (Local) | Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal APMC (IN) | Fresh | Top-Quality | ₹3,500–₹3,900/quintal | N/A | Stable | 2024-06-07 | Neutral |
| Gondal APMC (IN) | Fresh | Medium-Quality | ₹2,800–₹3,200/quintal | N/A | Stable | 2024-06-07 | Neutral |
| Gondal APMC (IN) | Fresh | Low-Grade | ₹2,200–₹2,700/quintal | N/A | Stable | 2024-06-07 | Neutral |
| New Delhi FOB | Powder (Organic) | — | — | €6.63 | Unchanged | 2025-09-06 | Neutral |
| Cairo FOB | Fresh | — | — | €1.00 | Unchanged | 2025-09-05 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals in Gondal APMC increased this session, reflecting a well-supplied market.
- Demand remains adequate, easily absorbing the additional volume with no disruptions reported.
- Global export offers remain stable, consistent with muted volatility in international buying patterns.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Major Drivers: Steady local demand, moderate increase in arrivals, and balanced inventories.
- No major external shocks—such as abrupt export restrictions or imports—have been observed.
- Speculative activity remains limited, with the market displaying low volatility.
| Country | 2023/24 Production (Estimate, 1,000 MT) | Key Trend |
|---|---|---|
| China | ~21,000 | Stable, major exporter |
| India | ~3,100 | Slight uptick, good quality |
| Egypt | ~600 | Stable, export-focused |
| Bangladesh | ~450 | Stable |
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India (Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh): Weather remains favorable with no heat waves or excessive rains reported. The outlook for the next week shows mild temperatures and scattered pre-monsoon showers, supporting good curing conditions for stored garlic.
- Egypt: Normal summer conditions; no adverse weather forecasted.
- China: Stable conditions in main garlic-producing regions. No reports of flooding/drought impacting current stocks.
Analysis: Weather remains supportive for both harvest completion and storage. No yield threats are present near-term.
📉 Trading Outlook
- Traders can maintain neutral to slightly long positions given the steady demand and smooth arrivals.
- Processors and exporters may consider selective buying at current price levels as no immediate downside threats are present.
- Watch for any upcoming shifts in export policy from China or India, which could alter global flows and price discovery.
- Physical buyers should monitor local APMC arrivals—any steep surge in supply or fall in demand warrants caution.
- Speculators may prefer to stay on the sidelines due to a lack of clear directional drivers.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Market | Product | Forecast (Local Currency/Unit) | Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal APMC | Fresh, Top-Grade | ₹3,500–₹3,900/qtl | N/A | Stable |
| Delhi FOB | Organic Garlic Powder | — | €6.60–€6.65 | Stable |
| Cairo FOB | Fresh Garlic | — | €1.00 | Stable |
No significant volatility expected; market will trade within current price bands barring unforeseen shocks.
