Kazakhstan Linseed Exports Surge as EU Tariffs Reshape Market in 2025/26

The linseed market is undergoing a significant transformation in the 2025/26 marketing year, with Kazakhstan emerging as a critical beneficiary of changing global trade dynamics. The imposition of higher EU import tariffs on Russian linseed—first raised to 20% in 2025 and set to rise to 50% in 2026—has turned European purchasers decisively towards alternative origins. Kazakhstan has deftly filled this void, ramping up exports at record pace as both EU policy and resilient demand converge to reinforce its market dominance. Between September and December 2025, Kazakh linseed shipments soared to 520,000 tonnes, already matching two-thirds of the country’s projected annual export potential and nearly the entire volume traded in the previous year. This robust surge has been driven primarily by increased deliveries to the EU, with Belgium, Poland, and Estonia showing especially strong import growth, and additional gains across Germany, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.

As the EU continues tightening its restrictions on Russian supplies, Kazakhstan’s strategic position as Europe’s primary supplier solidifies further. Elsewhere, rising shipments to China, Afghanistan, and Central Asia are contributing to a more diverse export portfolio. The market outlook has been decisively revised upward, with Kazakhstan now expected to export 790,000 tonnes of linseed in 2025/26, setting the stage for further consolidation and price stability in the year ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Linseed Browns	Kazakhstan	Dordrecht, NL	99.9%	Yes	1.24	1.35	-8.1%	Bearish (Short-term Correction)
Linseed Yellow	Russia	Dordrecht, NL	99.9%	No	1.41	1.36	+3.7%	Mixed (Lower Availability, Higher Duty)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Kazakhstan’s linseed exports for Sept–Dec 2025/26 reached 520,000 tonnes, a 2.5x increase y/y.
• December shipments hit a record 178,300 tonnes (+13% m/m).
• Four-month exports now equal 66% of the country’s annual export potential (projected 790,000 tonnes).
• Primary EU buyers: Belgium (156,100 t), Poland (37,400 t), Estonia (30,800 t), with growth in Germany, Czech Republic, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.
• EU tariff hikes on Russian linseed (to 20% in 2025, 50% in 2026) drive this shift.
• China and Afghanistan also increased imports; Belgium and China together now absorb 68% of Kazakh exports.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export Forecast: Kazakhstan’s linseed export outlook for 2025/26 is upgraded to 790,000 tonnes (record high).
• Market Share: Kazakhstan cements its position as the EU’s leading supplier.
• Market Drivers: High EU tariffs on Russian origin, strong European and Chinese demand, and favorable logistics from Kazakhstan.
• Price Dynamics: The drop in Kazakh organic linseed prices reflects aggressive selling and supply expansion, while Russian prices show resilience amid tariffs and reduced competitiveness.

🌦️ Weather & Production Outlook

• Current web and satellite data indicate average-to-favorable weather in Kazakhstan’s primary linseed regions. Planting and early growth conditions appear supportive of a normal yield trajectory for 2026 harvest.
• There are no major production interruptions reported among key EU importing nations; competition in the EU market will likely remain subdued as long as tariffs on Russian linseed persist.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Kazakhstan: Fastest export growth, leading global supplier for non-Russian linseed into Europe.
• Russia: Facing significant barriers into the EU, diverting more product to other destinations but with reduced pricing power.
• Other Exporters: Limited capacity to offset the Kazakhstan-EU trade axis, with smaller players in Canada, India, and China.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 For exporters (Kazakhstan, Central Asia): Exploit EU demand window pre-2026, anticipate further price moderation as inventories build but remain competitive in non-EU markets as well.
• 🟡 For EU importers: Lock in supply from Kazakh and non-Russian origins ahead of additional Russian tariff escalation; consider short-term price dips as buying opportunities.
• 🔴 For Russian suppliers: Prepare for continued pressure; diversify market outlets and offer competitive pricing to non-EU buyers.
• 🟠 Analysts/Investors: Monitor tariff developments, Kazakh planting conditions, and evolving logistics out of Black Sea and Central Asia.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Market Sentiment
Dordrecht, NL	Kazakh Linseed Browns (Organic)	1.24	1.22–1.25	Stable–Slightly Bearish
Dordrecht, NL	Russian Linseed Yellow (Conventional)	1.41	1.40–1.44	Stable–Slightly Bullish