Kyrgyzstan’s Nut Export Plunge: What’s Behind the Fourfold Decline?

In one of the most striking shifts of recent years, Kyrgyzstan’s nut export sector faced a dramatic contraction in 2025, with shipments plummeting more than fourfold compared to 2024. This downturn is a clear indicator of the volatility that shapes the global nut market, driven by shifting regional demand and evolving export conditions. According to official statistics, annual export volume plummeted from over 26,200 tonnes in 2024 to just under 5,850 tonnes in 2025, slashing export revenues by more than half.

Russia continues to serve as Kyrgyzstan’s cornerstone market, but even here, sales figures halved, highlighting the difficulties facing exporters. Key regional partners such as Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Serbia, and Turkey also received markedly lower volumes. For industry players and analysts, these developments underscore the risks and uncertainties in the nut trade—where recovery hinges on both external demand and Kyrgyzstan’s ability to compete in price, quality, and logistics. This detailed report explores current market prices, supply and demand dynamics, drivers behind the sharp decline, and provides actionable insights for the coming months.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Brazil nuts	NL	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	6.50	6.50	2026-02-28	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Kyrgyzstan’s total nut exports crashed to 5,848 tonnes in 2025 (from 26,210 tonnes in 2024).
• Export revenues fell from US$20.7 million to US$8.78 million year-on-year.
• Russia remains the biggest outlet, but volume and value dropped by over 75%.
• Other key buyers: Uzbekistan (1,046 t), Azerbaijan (720 t), Serbia (602 t), Turkey (538 t).
• Additional exports to secondary markets: Iran, Georgia, Afghanistan, Germany, China, Iraq, UAE, and more.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Sharp contraction: The fourfold drop signals either severe supply constraints, a drop in competitiveness, or a demand shock in regional markets.
• Regional Demand Shifts: Demand in key regional markets — especially Russia — weakened significantly.
• Market Volatility: Exporters face continued risk from fluctuating demand, possible logistical hurdles, and pricing pressures.
• Competitiveness: Industry observers cite recovery contingent on improved competitiveness and renewed demand from core markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• While the raw data does not cite specific weather events, external context suggests that weather volatility and possible droughts in major Central Asian nut-producing regions could have compounded supply challenges.
• Future crop yields may be affected by ongoing climate instability, further impacting export potential and local sourcing.

🌐 Global Trade Comparison

Exporting Country	2025 Exports (tonnes)	Main Destinations
Kyrgyzstan	5,848	Russia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Turkey
*Other Top Exporters*	*Data NA*	*Data NA*

*Note: No explicit numbers available in the Raw Text for non-Kyrgyz exporters; consult trade reports for broader global context.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Caution: Expect continued volatility as Kyrgyzstan rebuilds its position in regional nut trade.
• 🧐 Monitor: Watch for policy changes, weather updates, and demand forecasts in Russia and neighboring markets.
• 📉 Short-term: Upside remains limited without a rebound in Russian or Central Asian demand.
• ⏳ Medium-term: Consider strategic inventory management and diversifying export destinations until stability returns.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Exchange/Location	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
2026-03-01	Dordrecht (FCA)	6.50	Stable
2026-03-02	Dordrecht (FCA)	6.50	Stable
2026-03-03	Dordrecht (FCA)	6.45	Slight downward risk