With rising freight processes and a shortage of containers, the kernel market is drifting southward internationally. Already the market is getting new cashew of the season from Tanzania, and in a month’s time, new cashews from India, Vietnam, and Cambodia will start flooding the auction market. But it remains to be seen how the market trades given the freight challenges it is facing currently.
Market Sentiment
India
India continues to be one of the leading importers of shell cashew. Despite the pandemic, which saw a slump in the cashew market, the price picked up this year during the festival season. The increase in the domestic demand for the nuts among the corporates as part of the Diwali and other festival gifts helped the cashew market bullish in November.
Vietnam
Vietnam continues to be one of the leading exporters of the crop. It was reported that Vietnam increased its cashew export by 19 percent for October 2021, which stood at 56,134 mt. The overall export of the crop for the year from January was recorded to be at 505,678 mt, which was 20 percent higher than last year.
The country has also increased its amount of RCN imports this year. Vietnam recorded in October 2021 the import to have increased by 61.25% during the same time compared to last year. As of October 2021, the import was a total of 174,701 RCN. Between January and October 2021, the import stood at 2,868,121 mt RCN, which increased by 108.62% compared to last year.
China
China, however, experienced a slump in the export of cashew, which was recorded to be 27 percent lower than last year during October 2021, which stood at only 6,850 mt. However, the overall export was increased by 7 percent between the period of January and October, which reached 49,881 mt compared to last year during the same period.
The US
From Vietnam, the US imported 14,486 mt of cashew in October, which was 29 percent more than last year’s October count. From January till October, the import for the US increased by 9 percent with 136,136 mt compared to the previous year during the same time.
EU & Others
Like the US, even the EU and other countries increased their cashew import this year, which reached 34,798 for October 2021, an increase of 31 percent. The total increase between January and October was recorded to have reached 319,661 mt, which is 27 percent higher than the last year.
The current scenario seems to be affirmative for the US and EU export market for cashews compared to last year with the easing of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. However, according to market experts, the market boost for the crop might soon take a downward trend since the cashew kernel market is getting saturated.
It is getting difficult to find buyers anytime soon as most quotations are asked for March/April 2022 and onwards. The lack of nearby buying is putting pressure on the price of the cashew auction market. But it is expected the demand will increase post-New year, which can prove to be beneficial for the cashew traders.
Price
W240
| Date | Price |
| November 15 | $8,72 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $8,66 per kg FOB |
W320
| Date | Price |
| November 11 | $8,05 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $8,00 per kg FOB |
W450
| Date | Price |
| November 15 | $7,39 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $7,34 per kg FOB |
LWP
| Date | Price |
| November 15 | $6,73 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $6,67 per kg FOB |
SWP
| Date | Price |
| November 15 | $6,06 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $6,05 per kg FOB |
Indian cashew prices have stayed stable since last month till November 9, after which the price increased on November 10 and stayed at the same price till the market closed on November 15.
Prediction
There can be a restriction on the import of cashews in Europe since there are reports of COVID-19 surge, which can result in another lockdown for weeks. The increase of freight prices for shipping from Vietnam to Europe and the US can become the biggest concern for the traders.
With new crops getting into the market, it is important to note how things will fare in the coming days. Since there are already reports of Vietnam having 500,000 mt RCN in their warehouse, which is in the hold of financially strong companies, small packers are moving away from buying the kernels at higher rates.
India is expected to increase its production and start exporting more of the crop, given the domestic demand is getting strong post-COVID situation and due to the easing of the lockdown restrictions.
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