India: Cashew Market likely to Remain Strong Prices Have Been Stable Since December 2021

The international market of cashews is putting a bit of pressure on India, mainly with delays of in-shell cashews from Tanzania. However, despite the pressure on the market, the prices have been holding steady in the Indian cashew market.

Market Overview 

• The in-shell auction of Cashew from Tanzania is in full swing, but there is a delay in exporting the quantities.
• The lack of containers and the congestion in the port are delaying the exports.
• Currently, India is not harvesting the local crop. As a result, the lack of receiving Cashew containers in India puts pressure on RCN pipelines.
• Covid-19 pandemic continues to affect the Vietnam processing of the Cashew kernels. With more variants coming is forcing the smaller processors to shut their business.
• This downward processing trend in Vietnam is likely to impact kernel availability in the global market significantly.
• Till the end of November last year, there has been a slump in kernel demand.
• In December, the import demand, especially from the EU, picked up for the first, second, and third quarters.
• However, no sellers are making this long-term export commitment from any of the cashew-producing countries since the pricing of the crop is still unclear.
• US demand for the commodity remained sluggish.
• Middle East demand has picked up.
• India’s domestic demand for cashews is strong.
• China’s demand to cover the requirement before Tet Holiday starts soon.

Prediction

• Southern hemisphere countries like Brazil, Mozambique, and Indonesia will have more or less the same quantity of production as 2020.
• Due to the heavy rain, the crop sizes might be affected negatively for countries like Cambodia and Vietnam.
• India and WAF crops will not have much effect due to the change in the weather patterns related to El Nina.
• The overall idea of the crop sizes of cashews in the countries growing the crop will be more apparent towards the end of January.
• Quite a few factors like a mismatch between the shells and kernels, low production due to the weather, and shortage of export due to the Omicron variant are likely to keep the market bullish in the coming days.

Price Chart 

All five categories of Cashew had been experiencing a stable price in the market since December 8, 2021. However, the prices for the commodities enjoyed a considerable price hike on December 8 last year.

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