Could the Delayed Corn Harvest in Ukraine Lead to a Sharp Increase in Prices?

The likelihood that part of the corn crop in Ukraine will remain in the fields for the winter is growing. Heavy autumn rains slowed down harvesting and increased the moisture content of corn to 28-32%, which, against the background of high drying costs and low corn prices, makes harvesting impractical. The snow, which fell in mid-November, stopped fieldwork altogether, and similar weather will continue for at least another two weeks, according to analysts of Grain Trade.

50% of the area were harvested

In Ukraine, as of November 18, 12.3 million tons of corn were threshed from 2.1 million hectares or 50% of the area with a yield of 5.81 t/ha, while local analysts estimated the harvest at 27-28 million tons, and the USDA — at 31.5 million tons, corn can be harvested in winter or early spring, but under the condition of frost in the absence of snow in the fields. However, Ukrainian farmers have not yet left such large volumes of crops in the fields for the winter, so it is difficult to estimate possible losses now.

Traders resumed the purchase of corn in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine at a price of 7500-7600 UAH/t or 175-205 $/t, but the pace of deliveries remains low, given the cost of delivery to ports in the range of 1500-2000 UAH/t and the cost of drying 2000-2500 UAH/t

Shortage of new crop

Due to the high carry-over stocks in the current season as of November 21, corn exports amounted to 8.6 million tons compared to 4.6 million tons a year ago. The shortage of new crop supply in the near future will lead to instability of supplies to ports and an increase in purchase prices.

“World corn prices remain under pressure from falling oil prices and demand for goods due to a slowdown in the global economy, but may soon resume growth on forecasts of a decline in production in Ukraine,” Grain Trade said.

Recall that last week the main world players in the corn market significantly reduced imports due to high prices. There was a saturation of markets in all directions.

Late harvesting in Ukraine and Europe continues, so predictably large volumes of corn and sunflower entered the market. Ukraine notes the slowdown in the port logistics of Odesa, Yuzhny and Chernomorsk, which creates crazy queues in front of the ports of road and rail transport.

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