Corn Market Outlook: Increased Arrivals Signal Potential Price Drops

Grain Markets: US Corn Price Falls to January 2021 Levels

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European Grain Markets

  • The MATIF wheat futures closed weak on Friday and reported a drop to 230.75€/t in grain markets. Despite starting the session strongly, wheat failed to hold on to the pressure influenced by corn. The announced Algerian wheat auction tomorrow may be able to support the bulls in containing the decline.
  • By the end of the day on Friday, Matif’s corn had fallen dramatically, following U.S. exchanges, which were surprised by the USDA’s acreage and stocks report.
  • In correlation with US soybeans, rapeseed in Paris rocketed up to nearly 450 €/t after trying to consolidate around the 440 €/t level last week.

American Grain Markets

  • The USDA again managed to surprise everyone and the markets reacted instantly. Corn acreage exceeded analysts’ expectations and, along with forecasted rains for the Corn Belt, plunged CBOT corn to levels last seen in January 2021. It also dragged wheat down, despite the drop in stocks.
  • On the other hand, the oilseed complex found strong support after soybean acreage and stocks were reduced more than expected. As a result, Chicago soybeans erased all weekly losses and shot up 6%. Quite expectedly, soybean meal and oil futures also posted gains.

Black Sea Grain Markets

  • As of July 1, major international grain traders – Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, Viterra – are suspending Russian grain exports. Experts do not rule out the possibility of slight shocks in exports while the business adjusts to the changes. Local analysts estimate the share of these 3 companies in Russian grain exports at 16%.
  • ICAR analysts forecast grain exports from Russia for the 2022/23 season to reach 60Mt, of which 47-48Mt will be wheat. The forecast for the new season is for 55.5Mt of grain exports.

Import/Export Statistics

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The following reports may be of interest to you:

Wheat Market: Prices Edge Higher on Weather Risks
Corn Market: Weak Demand Despite Favorable Harvest Conditions
Feed Grain Continues to Rise in Price in Ukrainian Ports
Wheat Market: European Supply Concerns Push Prices Higher
Corn Market: Weak Global Demand and Favorable Weather Limit Gains


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