According to AB Centre calculations, the export prices (average delivery cost per tonne) for Russian linseed in 2021 were USD 738.6/t, 51.4% higher than a year earlier. In roubles, prices rose by 49.9 % to RUB 54,148/t.
In January 2022, the average cost of linseed exported from the Russian Federation was 807.1 USD/t, up 32.4% from January 2021, according to the AB Center, and prices in rubles were 61,816 RUB/t (up 36.4%).
At the highest prices, linseed was shipped to Italy in January 2022 (953.3 USD/t or 73,020 RUB/t), at the lowest prices – to China (769.2 USD/t or 58,914 RUB/t).
According to AB-Centre price monitoring, in March 2022, the average price of linseed in Russia was RUB 62.6/kg (637 USD/t), including VAT.
One factor limiting price growth is possible difficulties in supplying linseed and oil to European countries. Restricting exports amid bumper harvests (1,294.5 thousand tonnes harvested in 2021 compared to 787.9 thousand tonnes in 2020) could lower prices. At the same time, these volumes may be diverted to Asian markets (expansion of deliveries to China).
Further price growth this year is supported by the weakening of the local currency (which favours the expansion of export supply) and the high world market price level for other types of oilseeds and vegetable oils.
Flax and linseed oil are not strategically essential commodities for ensuring food security, unlike sunflower and sunflower oil. Their exports are unlikely to be curtailed even with significant price increases at the state level.
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