Walnut harvest on early varieties has begun on the 2023 crop. Weather has been perfect this year for walnuts, with an abundance of water and healthy trees, quality is expected to be excellent. One supplier informed Summit that they expect the quality to be the best they have seen in 20 years. After poor quality this past season, this news will be welcomed by both suppliers and buyers.
2023 Crop Market
The California Exporters, which represent 80% of the total walnut supply from CA, met this past week to come up with opening prices for the 2023 crop. After much debate, the opening price for Chandler 20% was agreed to be at 2.20 FAS. The reasoning behind this price is that for multiple years walnuts have been selling at a loss to growers. This price reflects a breakeven point for most CA walnut growers. While Summit undoubtedly agrees with the reasoning behind the pricing, sellers still need customers to pay for the product and each customer has their own set of challenges and expectations. Usually, buyers do not take CA grower’s profitability into consideration when making their purchasing decisions. China has started to offer most markets at a discount to CA, which is normal.
2022 Crop Market
This is the final walnut shipment report for the 2022 crop year, September will be the first shipment month for the 2023 crop. The 2022 crop will be characterized by all-time low prices, with the worst quality in recent memory. With all the talk about the record Chinese crop and terrible quality from California, inshell to the Middle East finished up an outstanding 19.48%!! UAE in particular up 59.49%. The USA also ended up 32% on kernel shipments, proving that the USA market is the most important market for CA walnuts. This surge in demand was caused by record low prices, something that CA suppliers will try to avoid this coming crop year.
August Shipments
The August 2023 Walnut shipments were +55,441 tons in 2023 versus 36,567 tons in August 2022 on an in-shell equivalent, for an increase of 34.1%.
Season to date Shipments
The industry has shipped a total of 788,050 tons for the 2022 crop, compared to 691,171 tons at this point for the 2021 crop. This is an increase of 12.2%^.
Crop
The final crop receipts for 2022 crop are 747,870 tons. The NASS estimate for the 2023 CROP is 790,000 tons.
Shipments
| Domestic-USA | August 2023 shipments versus 2022 shipments on an in-shell equivalent are up 44.8% |
| Export | August 2023 shipments versus 2022 shipments on an in-shell equivalent were up 12%. |
Key Markets-Shipments to date, 2022 vs 2021
| Türkiye | inshell up 2.90% |
| UAE | inshell up 59.49% |
| Germany | kernels down -28.86% |
| Middle East/Africa | inshell up 19.48% |
| Europe | kernels down -14.87% |
Import/Export Statistics
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