The Almond Board of California released the Position Report with Shipments in August at 212 million pounds compared to last year’s 228.3 million pounds for a decrease of 7.1 percent. It had been widely expected the shipments would be lower due to the delayed harvest ( approximately 10 days later start to harvest than normal) combined with the impact of Hurricane Hillary soaking the southern part of the valley with heavy rains. After the rains, it took approximately a week for the orchards to dry out and resume harvesting. This year’s almond harvest is probably one of the latest and slowest-going harvests in history for California! Thus shipments were very respectable in light of all of the challenges this industry dealt with reports Summit Almonds.
| MILLION POUNDS | PERCENT | |
| DOMESTIC | 61.42 | 6.2% |
| EXPORT | 150.6 | 7.5% |
Crop receipts
The crop receipts are at 70.1 million pounds compared to 264.2 million pounds last year, a decrease of 73.46 percent. With the delayed harvest we knew the crop receipts would be substantially lower this month. It does raise the question as well. Is the crop smaller than what the Objective Crop Estimate of 2.6 billion indicated? Grower and Fieldmen Reports across the state are indicating the crop is coming in lighter and less quantity from many areas of the State. Many industry experts are now predicting the crop will be a maximum of 2.4 billion pounds or less. With receipts off over 73% is significant!
Year-to-date shipments
This is the first month of the new year, so shipments are at 212 million pounds, a decrease of 7.1 percent for the new season.
Market
During the past month, almond prices initially declined, and then as the crop started to be harvested realizing the crop is smaller than what was expected prices started to rise. Then Hurricane Hilary impacted southern California pouring 1.5 inches of rain on Kern Count ( the largest county for almond production in California) thus delaying the harvest a week and impacting the quality of the almonds. The Almonds in the south with the rain impact will have a higher level of stained shell, which will impact the quantity of available in-shell as a larger quantity will need to be shelled out as kernels, decreasing the availability of in-shell from California.
Throughout the State, the reports of a higher level of serious damage are widespread and true. With the smaller almond crop, the insect pressure remains the same resulting in more insects available for the fewer almond kernels ( the bugs food) resulting in a higher level of insect damage and serious damage. Some packers are reporting orchards with 3%, 5%, and 7% serious damage, so more sorting of the kernels is required reducing the availability of high-quality kernels. The availability of Stds 5% will be larger this season. As this data is continuing to be received less growers and packers have been willing to sell almonds resulting in pricing rising further.
Kernel prices are up 10-15 cents per pound and NP inshell pricing is up 20-25 cents per pound. Pricing is always a function of supply and demand and at this point, supply is shrinking resulting in higher prices.
Sales during August were robust!
A total of 256 million pounds were sold in August compared to last year’s 195 million pounds for an increase of +30.81 percent! Demand was very strong from India, the Middle East, Europe, and the USA during August resulting in these strong sales. The Almond Industry is now at sold at approximately 24.9 percent for the carry-in and the new crop combined. If the crop is smaller as discussed, the sold position is actually higher than the 24.9 percent.
Harvest
The harvest is underway throughout the state. The majority of Nonpareils and Independence have been shaken are being collected from the orchards. Pollinators have yet to begin for most of the state as well. Thus, crop receipts for September will be low as well when the next position report is released in early October.
Outlook
We expect shipments in September to be respectable, but with the delayed harvest and smaller crop, we will expect shipments to be less overall giving a bullish sentiment to the pricing of almonds.
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