Mexico: 2025/26 Grain and Feed Annual Report
1. Economic Context & Outlook
Mexico’s central bank revised its economic growth forecast to 0.6%, citing national and global policy challenges. Despite this, demand for grains remains strong, driven by population growth and rising livestock production. Mexico is expected to continue as a net importer of staple grains.
2. Corn
• Production 2025/26: 24.5 MMT (+3%)
• Imports: 24.8 MMT (−3%)
• Consumption: 49.8 MMT (+1%)
• Ending stocks: 4.1 MMT (−11%)
| Year | Area (M ha) | Production (MMT) | Imports (MMT) | Consumption (MMT) | Ending Stocks (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 6.25 | 27.6 | 17.0 | 43.5 | 5.7 |
| 2022/23 | 6.15 | 27.0 | 20.8 | 45.9 | 5.0 |
| 2023/24 | 6.10 | 23.5 | 24.8 | 48.1 | 4.7 |
| 2024/25* | 6.30 | 23.7 | 25.5 | 49.3 | 4.6 |
| 2025/26** | 6.40 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 49.8 | 4.1 |
Note: White corn remains a staple for tortillas. Yellow corn demand continues to grow for feed use, especially poultry.
3. Wheat
• Production 2025/26: 1.6 MMT (−39%)
• Imports: 6.5 MMT (+8%)
• Consumption: 8.1 MMT (+1%)
• Ending stocks: 1.26 MMT (−4%)
| Year | Area (k ha) | Production (MMT) | Imports (MMT) | Consumption (MMT) | Ending Stocks (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 560 | 3.30 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 0.7 |
| 2022/23 | 570 | 3.60 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 0.8 |
| 2023/24 | 560 | 3.48 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 0.77 |
| 2024/25* | 465 | 2.64 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1.31 |
| 2025/26** | 290 | 1.60 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 1.26 |
Note: Prolonged drought in Sonora and Sinaloa reduced planting and yields. Mexico becomes a net importer of durum wheat.
4. Rice (Milled)
• Production 2025/26: 170,000 MT (+4%)
• Imports: 880,000 MT (+1%)
• Consumption: 1.02 MMT (+1%)
• Ending stocks: 109,000 MT (−4%)
| Year | Area (k ha) | Production (k MT) | Imports (k MT) | Consumption (k MT) | Ending Stocks (k MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 33 | 165 | 770 | 940 | 140 |
| 2022/23 | 34 | 160 | 810 | 970 | 120 |
| 2023/24 | 31 | 152 | 852 | 990 | 116 |
| 2024/25* | 34 | 163 | 870 | 1,005 | 114 |
| 2025/26** | 35 | 170 | 880 | 1,020 | 109 |
Note: Campeche State receives increased support. Imports remain dominant in supply.
5. Sorghum
• Production 2025/26: 3.85 MMT (+3%)
• Imports: 30,000 MT (−25%)
• Consumption: 3.9 MMT (+1%)
• Ending stocks: 132,000 MT (−14%)
| Year | Area (k ha) | Production (MMT) | Imports (k MT) | Consumption (MMT) | Ending Stocks (k MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 1.45 | 5.10 | 110 | 4.9 | 270 |
| 2022/23 | 1.38 | 4.90 | 80 | 4.7 | 270 |
| 2023/24 | 1.28 | 4.49 | 60 | 4.6 | 214 |
| 2024/25* | 1.07 | 3.75 | 40 | 3.85 | 153 |
| 2025/26** | 1.10 | 3.85 | 30 | 3.90 | 132 |
Note: Sorghum is used regionally as a substitute feed ingredient. Yellow corn remains the preferred national feed grain.
Conclusion
Despite structural challenges—such as drought, financing issues, and limited government support—Mexico remains a critical grain market, heavily dependent on imports of wheat and corn. While localized production gains are forecasted in rice and sorghum, dependence on U.S. exports is likely to persist, particularly for white corn, yellow corn, and wheat.
Disclaimer: All data is based on USDA FAS Report MX2025-0013 dated March 21, 2025. Figures for 2024/25 are estimates, and 2025/26 are forecasts.