Wheat Prices Stabilise – USDA Outlook Keeps Market Cautious

Wheat Prices Stabilise – USDA Outlook Keeps Market Cautious

Wheat futures recovered slightly on Wednesday after touching new lows earlier in the month. While global supplies remain ample, traders are increasingly focused on weather and export competition.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

On the CBOT, the July 2025 contract closed at 548.25 ct/bu, up 2.25 ct (+0.41%), continuing a modest technical recovery.
In Europe, Euronext wheat (MATIF) remained unchanged across all maturities, with Sep 25 at €209.00/t.

Exchange	Contract	Price	Change	Trend
MATIF	Sep 25	€209.00	0.00	➡️
CBOT	Jul 25	548.25 ct/bu	+2.25	⬆️
CBOT	Dec 25	582.50 ct/bu	+2.25	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• USDA Forecasts Record Global Output
  The 2025/26 global wheat crop is estimated at 808.5 Mio t, exceeding last year by almost 9 million tons. Despite this, demand is projected to rise only slightly.
• U.S. Ending Stocks Keep Rising
  U.S. stocks are forecast to climb to 25.1 Mio t, the highest level since 2019, pressuring CBOT prices.
• EU Remains Stable
  MATIF futures show little movement. The market is awaiting further confirmation of crop size in France and Germany, while Ukraine’s shipping outlook is improving.
• Export Competition Intensifies
  U.S. and EU wheat remain relatively expensive compared to Russian and Argentine offers, limiting international demand.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Wheat markets are stabilising but still feel the weight of global supply expectations. Without a weather-related disruption, the upside remains capped.

Strategy:
– Monitor Russian export volumes and U.S. spring wheat planting
– Avoid new longs until technical breakouts occur
– Buyers can consider partial forward coverage at €205–210/t

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Expected Range	Forecast
CBOT Jul 25	540–555 ct/bu	➡️ Sideways
MATIF Sep 25	€208–212	➡️ Rangebound

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Wheat Regions

Region	Trend	Commentary
U.S. Plains	🌤️ Cool & dry	Stable; some areas need rain to boost yield potential
EU (France, Germany)	🌤️ Dry bias	Stress is building in late-developing fields
Ukraine	🌦️ Mixed	Intermittent showers support heading/flowering
Russia (South)	🌤️ Stable	Conditions are favourable for early harvest

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