The global fennel market is at a crossroads as India, especially Gujarat, faces a sharp decline in fennel acreage for the third consecutive season. This year’s contraction can be traced back to persistently low farmgate prices and ongoing labour shortages during key sowing and harvesting phases. As a direct result, many farmers have shifted to competing crops that promise better returns and more predictable labor requirements. Despite noticeably reduced arrivals at major trading hubs, fennel prices have seen only marginal upticks, reflecting subdued domestic and export demand. Unreliable procurement from traders and a lack of bullish buying interest continue to cap any potential upside.
While market participants observe a tight supply situation compared to last year, any sustainable price revival seems contingent on a substantial pick-up in export orders and renewed local consumption. Unless the price levels become attractive soon, future plantings are likely to shrink further, deepening the cycle of contraction. The following analysis dives into the specifics of current price movements, acreage trends, supply-demand fundamentals, and evolving weather risks influencing the global fennel market.
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Fennel seeds
grade - A
99%
FOB 1.15 €/kg
(from IN)
Fennel
whole
FOB 2.54 €/kg
(from IN)
Fennel seeds
grade - A
98%
FOB 0.89 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Exchange Overview
| Product | Type | Purity | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment | Offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fennel seeds | Grade A | 99% | No | New Delhi, IN | 1.15 | -0.02 | Bearish | View |
| Fennel | Whole | Yes | New Delhi, IN | 2.54 | -0.03 | Stable | View | |
| Fennel seeds | Grade A | 98% | No | New Delhi, IN | 0.89 | -0.02 | Bearish | View |
| Fennel seeds | 99% | No | New Delhi, IN | 1.02 | -0.02 | Bearish | View | |
| Fennel seeds | 98% | No | New Delhi, IN | 0.93 | -0.02 | Bearish | View | |
| Fennel | Powder | Yes | New Delhi, IN | 2.67 | -0.03 | Stable | View |
🌍 Supply & Demand Trends
- Fennel acreage in Gujarat and other growing regions has dropped, as farmers pivot to better-yielding alternatives due to low returns and labour problems.
- Market arrivals this month are down, yet weak demand has kept price movement limited.
- Major trading centers report inconsistent procurement from traders, further weakening the price outlook.
- Industry commentary: Significant price upside hinges on a strong rebound in export demand and/or firming domestic consumption.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Domestic consumption of fennel remains steady but below historic highs due to changing food habits and substitute herbs.
- Export interest is tepid, with few large bulk orders being placed.
- Speculative activity is limited due to narrow margins and a lack of bullish cues.
- Farmers’ intent to switch to higher value crops for upcoming seasons could exacerbate future supply limitations if prices do not recover.
🌦 Weather Outlook & Regional Impact
- Widespread but uneven rainfall in India’s western states may benefit soil moisture but bring challenges for late sowing.
- Short-term weather is mostly favorable in Gujarat, with moderate rainfall expected over the next 3 days, likely to stabilize standing fennel crops but not support significant late-season planting.
- Continued labour shortages, exacerbated by erratic weather, remain a key risk factor for timely sowing and harvest in 2025.
🌐 Global Production & Inventory Snapshot
| Country | Estimated 2024 Production (tonnes) | Stocks (carryover) |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~650,000 | Reduced |
| Egypt | ~35,000 | Stable |
| Turkey | ~18,000 | Stable/Low |
| Other EU | ~25,000 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟧 Short-term: Prices likely to remain capped within tight band due to sluggish demand and adequate but tightening supply.
- 🟩 Medium-term: Watch for shift in export orders or policy incentives that could trigger upside movement.
- 🟥 Risk: Prolonged low prices could force further reduction in cultivated area, resulting in heightened volatility for next season.
- 👍 Recommendations:
- Producers: Hold stock if feasible, awaiting signs of export/retail recovery.
- Buyers: Consider staggered purchases to capitalize on current soft pricing.
- Traders: Monitor local weather patterns and farmer planting intentions for early signals on supply bottlenecks.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Fennel Seeds (EUR/kg) | Fennel Whole (EUR/kg) | Fennel Powder (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-10 | 1.14 | 2.53 | 2.65 |
| 2025-08-11 | 1.14 | 2.53 | 2.64 |
| 2025-08-12 | 1.13 | 2.52 | 2.63 |
