Wheat Market Digest: Global Abundance Drives Prices Lower Amid Harvest Records

The wheat market closes November 2025 with a clear bearish momentum. Optimism from recent US-China trade talks faded fast as actual fundamentals—ample harvests and robust international supply—took center stage. Across key European markets, wheat prices continue their downward correction, reflecting both local realities and the broader global context. In Spain, prices fell or stagnated across exchanges: Barcelona reported a drop for soft wheat, while Salamanca, Palencia, Valladolid, and León all saw modest declines. The International Grains Council (IGC) announced a new record for global grain production, projecting total cereals output at a striking 2,430 million tonnes for 2025/26, with wheat playing a central role in this abundance. Global stocks are forecast to recover for the first time in several years, keeping bears firmly in control.

At the same time, market sentiment is shaped by the expectation of strong feed and food demand, particularly from Asia and Africa, but this is more than offset by larger-than-expected harvests. CBOT and EU wheat quotations remain under pressure, and speculative money is adjusting positions accordingly. Weather updates, meanwhile, play a crucial role in shaping planting and yield expectations as winter wheat enters dormancy in the northern hemisphere. The interplay of these drivers suggests continued volatility but a strong cap on potential price rallies for now, with a slightly softer view ahead as stocks rebuild and demand levels off.

📈 Wheat Prices: Latest Market Overview

Exchange / Market	Product Spec.	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Barcelona	Soft Wheat	Spain	0.228	-0.009	Bearish
Salamanca	Wheat	Spain	0.204	-0.001	Bearish
Palencia	Wheat	Spain	0.191	-0.001	Bearish
Valladolid	Wheat	Spain	0.193	-0.001	Bearish
León	Wheat	Spain	0.193	-0.001	Bearish
CBOT	Protein 11.5%	USA	0.210	No Change	Stable/Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	Protein 11.0%	France	0.280	No Change	Sideways
Odesa	Protein 11.5%	Ukraine	0.250	No Change	Sideways
Kyiv	Protein 11.5%	Ukraine	0.240	No Change	Sideways

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global Production: IGC projects a cereals harvest record, led by wheat, at 2,430m tonnes (+5m MoM).
• Stocks Recovery: Global cereal stocks forecast to rise to 619m tonnes for 2025/26—the first increase since 2021/22.
• Trade Flows: World grains trade forecast revised upward to 442m tonnes, with steady wheat flows and rising demand from Asia and Africa.
• Speculative Positioning: Net short positions are increasing as large harvests pressure prices and reduce bullish sentiment.
• Spanish Market: Physically, feed wheat prices are under modest but persistent pressure. Declines noted in Barcelona and interior markets (Salamanca, Palencia, Valladolid, León).
• GOI Index: IGC’s Grain and Oilseeds Index rose 4% over the month, but the wheat sub-index remains 2% below last year.

📊 Fundamentals & Stock Comparison

Country	2025/26 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	47.5	18.8
EU	134	15.2
Russia	90.0	20.7
Ukraine	25.0	3.8
China	137.5	142.0
India	113.5	27.2
Rest of World	350	391.3

Key Insight: Major exporters (EU, Russia, USA) see robust ending stocks, signaling no immediate supply threat despite steady import demand, especially from Asia and Africa.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Northern Hemisphere: Current conditions are favorable for winter wheat dormancy in Europe and Ukraine, with above-average soil moisture. France experienced some rainfall, delaying late planting but overall healthy establishment.
• USA: The Midwest and Southern Plains report adequate moisture, but forecasts suggest a colder, occasionally wetter pattern moving in for December—potential frost risk but no widespread crop threat seen.
• Black Sea: Ukraine and Russia face average conditions, supporting strong wheat emergence but warranting monitoring for possible freeze spells in December.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider locking in prices for further 2025/26 sales; storage premiums may erode if global stock recovery estimates persist.
• Buyers & Feed Mills: Maintain a hand-to-mouth approach. Downside risk persists given the production outlook; scale-in purchases in volatile sessions.
• Exporters: Aggressive competition on FOB markets (Ukraine, Russia, France); be alert for further price undercutting in tenders to major African and Asian destinations.
• Speculators: Focus on short side, but beware of weather scares or abrupt trade policy changes that could trigger short-covering rallies.
• Watchlist: Monitor December weather updates in Black Sea and North America, and any new USDA/IGC revisions for 2025/26 S&D estimates.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Direction
CBOT (US, FOB)	0.210	0.208 – 0.211	Sideways/Bearish
Euronext (Paris, FOB)	0.280	0.278 – 0.282	Sideways
Odesa (Ukraine, FOB)	0.250	0.249 – 0.252	Sideways/Lower
Barcelona (Spot)	0.228	0.227 – 0.229	Lower

Short-term pressure is likely to persist. Monitor for fresh export demand or weather surprises as potential triggers for volatility.