Global Grains Market Outlook 2025/26: Record Production, Argentina Reshapes Trade Flows

Global Grains Market Outlook 2025/26: Record Production, Argentina Reshapes Trade Flows

CMB News – Global Grains | January 2026

The January 2026 assessments from the USDA confirm that the global grains complex enters the 2025/26 season with record or near-record production across wheat, coarse grains, and rice, while a structural policy shift in Argentina is materially changing export flows and competitive dynamics. Overall, supply growth continues to outpace demand, reinforcing a buyer-friendly market environment, particularly for wheat and corn.

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Global Overview: Supply Expansion Dominates

Total world grain production (wheat, coarse grains, and rice combined) is projected at 2.97 billion tons in 2025/26, up from 2.85 billion tons in 2024/25. This increase is driven primarily by wheat and coarse grains, while rice output remains broadly stable at a high level.

• Wheat production rises to 842.2 million tons, a new historical record.
• Coarse grains output reaches 1,590.6 million tons, supported by record corn yields in the United States and China.
• Rice (milled basis) production is forecast at 541.2 million tons, marginally higher year on year.

Global consumption also increases, but not fast enough to absorb the additional supply. As a result, ending stocks rise for wheat and rice, while coarse grain stocks remain ample despite a modest drawdown in some regions.

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Argentina: Structural Policy Shift with Immediate Impact

Argentina is the central driver of change in the current outlook. In December 2025, the government permanently reduced export taxes:

• Wheat and barley: from 9.5% to 7.5%
• Corn and sorghum: from 9.5% to 8.5%

With roughly 60% of Argentine grain production destined for export, these tax cuts directly improve FOB competitiveness and producer incentives. A short tax holiday in September–October 2025 already demonstrated the market’s responsiveness, with more than 2.8 million tons of grains registered for export within days.

Wheat

• Production 2025/26: 27.5 million tons, up 49% year on year
• Yield: record 4.23 t/ha
• Exports 2025/26: 16.0 million tons, up from 13.3 million tons in 2024/25 and just 8.2 million tons in 2023/24

Argentina has firmly re-established itself as one of the most competitive wheat exporters globally, with January FOB prices around USD 211/ton, the lowest among major origins.

Corn

• Production 2025/26: 53.0 million tons
• Exports are forecast to rebound strongly as larger exportable surpluses restore competitiveness against the United States and Brazil.

Barley

• Exports 2024/25 reached 3.4 million tons, the second-highest level of the past decade.
• Growth in 2025/26 is expected to be more limited due to slower global demand growth.

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Wheat Market: Record Output, Rising Trade, Price Pressure

Global wheat production gains are concentrated in Argentina, Russia, the European Union, Canada, and Australia, while drought reduces output in Turkey and parts of the Middle East.

• Global wheat trade increases to 219.7 million tons (from 204.4 million tons in 2024/25).
• Import demand rises notably in Morocco (7.2 million tons), Saudi Arabia (3.5 million tons), Japan, and Vietnam.
• Import reductions are seen in Pakistan, reflecting policy restrictions.

Despite higher trade volumes, prices remain under pressure. The U.S. season-average farm price is revised down to USD 4.90 per bushel, reflecting intense exporter competition and abundant global supply.

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Rice: Relative Strength in an Otherwise Soft Grains Complex

Rice remains the relative outperformer among grains.

• World rice trade is forecast at 62.8 million tons, up from 59.7 million tons.
• Export prices strengthened in Thailand, Pakistan, and India, supported by steady Asian demand.
• Global stocks rise moderately, preventing extreme volatility but keeping prices sensitive to policy shifts in key exporting countries.

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Corn and Coarse Grains: Comfortable Balance, Limited Upside

Corn dominates the coarse grains complex:

• World corn production: 1,296.0 million tons
• World consumption: 1,284.9 million tons
• Ending stocks remain high, particularly in the United States and China.

Export prices edged slightly higher in January, but the overall balance suggests limited upside potential unless weather risks intensify later in the season.

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CMB Outlook

The 2025/26 season confirms a structurally well-supplied global grains market. Argentina’s export tax reform is a long-term game changer, particularly for wheat and coarse grains, and will continue to pressure higher-cost exporters.

For buyers, market conditions remain favorable with ample supply and strong competition among origins.
For sellers, margins will increasingly depend on logistics efficiency, currency movements, and policy stability rather than outright price gains.

CMB News – Global Grains Intelligence, January 2026

Source: USDA